Energy Efficiency: A Strategy For Delaying Global Warming

Abstract

Although scientists have long been observing growing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, ten years ago, few would even venture a guess on the consequences of this increase. Today, many prominent scientists believe that increased CO, levels w i l l cause the earth's temperatures to rise as much in the next 50 years as they have in the past 18, OOO, dramatically altering the earth's climate, agriculture, and human settlement patterns.Such an enormous and fast change necessitates that action be taken now to mitigate ithe threat of global warming. Because about 60 percent of the contribution to global warming comes from energy production and use, energy conservation, and hence efficiency, is the most immediately available and politically acceptable response to this threat. And while most of the present concentrations of atmospheric CO, result from fossil fuel combustion in industrialized nations, developing countries will account for 48 percent of the world's primary energy use by the year 2025. It is thus imperative that both developed and developing countries work together to improve energy efficiency and meet the challenge presented by global warming. THE VALUE OF ENERGY CONSERVATIONIn the industrialized world, energy conservation has proven to be an effective means for sustaining economic growth in the face of rising real energy prices. OECD countries reduced their ail use per unit of GDP by 28 percent and their total energy use per unit of {GDP by 19 percent between 1973 and 1984, while achieving an average annual economic growth of 2.6 percent.Energy conservation activities have been much smaller in developing nations, but are producing considerable benefits nonetheless. The Philippines' Bureau for Energy Utilization, for example, estimates that between 1977 and 1982 its programs saved up to 15 percent of the energy consumed by 205 participating industrial and commercial enterprises. Since its inception three years ago, a nationwide energy conservation program i n Pakistan has realized energy savings of $4 million annually, and areas where another $11 million can be saved have been identified. Most recently, the U.S. Agency for International Development (A.I.D.) reviewed 1,500 energy conservatilm projects in 11 developing countries.The Agency found that its investments of $46 million in these projects were yielding actual savings of $26 million annually, with an average payback of 1.8 years. THE GLOBAL CHALLENGEWith energy conservation f i i y established in industrialized countries and emerging as a successful strategy in developing nations, it would appear that attention could be shifted to other pressing problems. But nothing could be further from the truth. A new challenge has arisen which makes the need to improve the efficiency of energy production and use more urgent than ever. This challenge, with far more serious implications than the economic impacts of recent energy price increases, arises from the threat of global warming.Many prominent scientists believe that global warming will res...