Energy, climate change and security: The Russian strategic conundrum

Abstract

Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.

Russia in a changing climate

“…Russia has failed to assess the specific negative impacts of climate change on national security (Kochtcheeva, 2022). Defense and military budgets are threatened by an unreformed energy sector and the consequent declining Russian economy as the green energy transition progresses (Godzimirski, 2022). Geopolitical leverage provided by fossil fuel energy exports is threatened as previously dependent countries diversify energy sources (Henderson & Mitrova, 2020).…”

“…Russia's political and industrial leaders have tended to downplay or deny climate change or argue that Russia is already a bastion against greenhouse gas accumulation (Godzimirski, 2022; Korppoo, 2022; Tynkkynen & Tynkkynen, 2018). Some Russian corporations have felt pressure from shareholders, lenders, and customers, predominantly international, to present a green face, but substantive change has been minimal (Kitade, 2021; Martus, 2018; Molchanova et al, 2020).…”