Energy balance in a warm world without the ocean conveyor belt and sea ice

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Lü, Jianhua; Strand, Warren G.

doi:10.1002/2013gl058123

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(23 reference statements)

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“…Whether the AMOC can generally possess multiple equilibria is an open question. It has been argued that bistability and associated irreversibility may be model dependent [e.g., Ferreira et al, 2011;Hu et al, 2013], or model artifacts due to missing atmospheric feedbacks [Yin et al, 2006], or erroneous subgrid-scale parameterizations in the ocean [Prange et al, 2003;Nof et al, 2007].…”

Section: Geophysical Research Lettersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Instability of the Atlantic overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 3

Zhang

Prange

Merkel

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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Variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) were involved in the occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). The stability of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations is studied using a comprehensive climate model under MIS3 boundary conditions. An AMOC stability diagram constructed from a series of equilibrium freshwater perturbation experiments reveals a highly nonlinear dependence of AMOC strength on freshwater forcing. The MIS3 baseline state is remarkably unstable with respect to minor perturbations. The global climate signal associated with a change in AMOC strength is consistent with a transition from an interstadial to a stadial state including an annual mean surface air temperature drop of~8 K in central Greenland. We suggest that minor freshwater perturbations in the hydrologic cycle, e.g., related to ice sheet processes, had the potential to trigger D-O-type climate shifts associated with a threshold in the atmosphere-ocean system.

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Section: Geophysical Research Lettersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Instability of the Atlantic overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 3

Zhang

Prange

Merkel

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…All of the other anthropogenic atmospheric forcing agents in this scenario were also radiatively coupled. These forcing agents included CH 4 , N 2 O, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), O 3 , aerosols, and aerosol deposition on snow (Hu et al, 2013). External iron inputs to the oceans from the atmosphere and sediments were held constant over time using a climatology on monthly fluxes (Misumi et al, 2014).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

Moore

Primeau

et al. 2020

JGR Biogeosciences

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One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P‐E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long‐term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far‐reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2‐month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land‐ocean coupling as drivers of long‐term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi‐century climate change projections.

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“…Beyond 2100, the IPCC Special Report on Oceans, Cryosphere and Climate Change (IPCC 2019) concluded that an AMOC collapse was about as likely as not by 2300, for high emissions scenarios. Some model simulations also suggest the possibility of a temporary, multi-decadal to century scale AMOC reduction, followed by a recovery (Stocker and Schmittner 1997;Hu et al 2013;Koven et al 2022;Pöppelmeier et al 2023). These assessments and recent studies emphasize the still incomplete nature of current scientific understanding of the relevant processes.…”

Section: Combining Evidence From the Paleoclimatic Records And Modelsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society

Stocker,

Jones,

Hegglin

et al. 2024

Surv Geophys

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There is a diverging perception of climate tipping points, abrupt changes and surprises in the scientific community and the public. While such dynamics have been observed in the past, e.g., frequent reductions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last ice age, or ice sheet collapses, tipping points might also be a possibility in an anthropogenically perturbed climate. In this context, high impact—low likelihood events, both in the physical realm as well as in ecosystems, will be potentially dangerous. Here we argue that a formalized assessment of the state of science is needed in order to establish a consensus on this issue and to reconcile diverging views. This has been the approach taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since 1990, the IPCC has consistently generated robust consensus on several complex issues, ranging from the detection and attribution of climate change, the global carbon budget and climate sensitivity, to the projection of extreme events and their impact. Here, we suggest that a scientific assessment on tipping points, conducted collaboratively by the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, would represent an ambitious yet necessary goal to be accomplished within the next decade.

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Energy balance in a warm world without the ocean conveyor belt and sea ice

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Instability of the Atlantic overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 3

Instability of the Atlantic overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 3

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society

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