Energy and water sector policy strategies for drought mitigation.

Kelic, Andjelka; Vugrin, Eric D.; Loose, Verne W.; Vargas, Vanessa N

doi:10.2172/974886

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 5 publications

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“… With water shortages, thermoelectric and industrial sectors using cooling-water convert to closed-cycle cooling or even to dry cooling as conditions demand (Kelic et al 2009;). These changes increase the cost of producing output.…”

Section: Characteristics and Structure Of The Remi Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Reinert¹,

Stamber²,

Robinson³

et al. 2010

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Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state-and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.4

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Section: Characteristics and Structure Of The Remi Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Reinert¹,

Stamber²,

Robinson³

et al. 2010

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Integration of Water and Energy Sustainability

2016

Sustainable Water Management and Technologies

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Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

Loose¹,

Lowry²,

Malczynski³

et al. 2009

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Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change -precipitation -to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change.We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of laboryears.We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, 4 seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance. 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

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Energy and water sector policy strategies for drought mitigation.

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Integration of Water and Energy Sustainability

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

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