Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most ''cold-blooded'' terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy-and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism-and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.T he response of organisms to climate warming will have implications for conservation, pest management, and the spread of disease. To respond effectively to these changes, we must be able to predict how changes in climate, especially air temperature, will affect biodiversity (1, 2). Current approaches to predicting these impacts are largely based on statistical correlations between a species' observed distribution and coarse-scale macroclimatic data (3-5). Correlative approaches provide little insight into the mechanisms by which species respond to climate (6-8), particularly the potential for behavioral, plastic, or genetic adaptation. For example, most organisms are ectotherms, and many of them can exploit complex microclimatic mosaics to regulate their body temperatures behaviorally (9, 10). For a complete understanding of their response to climate change, we need to consider not only the physiological sensitivity of ectotherms to temperature but their capacity to buffer the impact of climate change through behavior, morphology, and physiology (11)(12)(13)(14).Recent research suggests that the physiological sensitivity of tropical ectotherms may render them more vulnerable to a given magnitude of climate warming than are temperate species (15), under the assumption that body temperature is equal to ambient air temperature. As the authors of that study point out, the actual impact will depend ...