Endogenously driven de‐peripheralization through political secession: The case of the Donbas region

Abstract

This paper presents a case study of the Donbas region, located in eastern Ukraine, focusing on efforts to de‐peripheralize the region prior to and after the outbreak of violence that engulfed it with the Russian invasion in early 2022. It sets out to use the lens of regional science and its sibling field, peace science, to impose some structure for understanding the still ongoing war. It does this by developing an economic history of the Donbas and a conceptual model for thinking about conflict and conflict resolution there. The implications of the model are explored using data on public opinion from 2014, a time of great uncertainty in the region. The model is also used to consider various counterfactual scenarios, and ultimately, to highlight the manner in which a peaceful solution escaped and the region's future was shattered by war. Overall, the paper represents an attempt to use the perspective of regional science to understand a complex and shifting conflict in real time. The project was undertaken with the aspiration that, by adding to knowledge on the Donbas and helping to disseminate awareness of its situation, it may contribute to the eventual recovery of Ukraine and its people.