Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU

Arestis, Philip; Phelps, Peter

doi:10.1111/jcms.12303

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…To justify omitted variable bias which may arise from unobserved heterogeneity, cross-sectional effects can be included [6]. Country-specific effects are included in this analysis.…”

Section: Endogeneitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Sutradhar

2020

IJEPS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper investigates the impact of workers' remittances on economic growth of four South Asian emerging countries by employing balanced panel data from 1977 to 2016. Pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects and dummy variable interaction models are used to estimate the impact of remittances. The empirical regression analysis confirms a negative effect of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Conversely, remittances have a positive impact on economic growth in India. This study also indicates a joint significant and negative relationship between remittances and economic growth in four countries.

show abstract

“…To justify omitted variable bias which may arise from unobserved heterogeneity, cross-sectional effects can be included [6]. Country-specific effects are included in this analysis.…”

Section: Endogeneitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Sutradhar

2020

IJEPS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The authors uncover that existing trade flows have a positive effect on business cycles synchronization, while new trade flows have a negative (indirect) effect, as well as specialization. Arestis and Phelps (2016) analyze the determinants of business cycle synchronization, and its possible endogeneity, in a panel for the period between 1994 and 2013, for the Eurozone, for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs), Northern European countries, and Candidate countries for euro adoption. The authors find that trade and spillover channels related to monetary integration are important variables to assess.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone

Duran

Ferreira-Lopes

2016

International Review of Applied Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper we study business cycle correlations in the Eurozone and its determinants. Additionally, we also analyze the determinants of the lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone. We explore the relevance, in the Eurozone context, using GDP and employment as the business cycle measures, of the determinants of business cycle synchronization identified in the literature, namely bilateral trade intensity, dissimilarity of labor market rigidity, dissimilarity in industrial structures, financial openness, and foreign direct investment relations. We estimate a simultaneous 4-equations model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and three-stage least square to investigate empirically the above-mentioned determinants of business cycle correlation. Bilateral trade relations present a positive influence on business cycle correlations, while the dissimilarity of labor market rigidity presents a negative influence. The rest of the above-mentioned variables are non-significant. These results are robust to the use of the Hodrick-Prescott-filter and first differences as the de-trending methods, as well as the use of GDP as the business cycle measure, excluding the financial crisis years (2008 and 2009). Results for employment as the business cycle measure are in contrast with the previous ones, and found industrial dissimilarity to be the relevant variable to determine business cycles synchronization. In what concerns the determinants of the lead and lag behavior, results show that the member states of the Eurozone that usually lead the cycle are the ones that are wealthier, with strict employment legislation, more specialized in construction and finance sectors, and more prone to international capital movements. Differences in the determinants between contemporaneous business cycles and lead and lag behavior of business cycles are especially important for policy-makers in the Eurozone to know about, in particular if asymmetric shocks between countries are set in place.

show abstract

“…One final noteworthy approach in terms of providing useful insights to understanding core and periphery in the EMU involves studies in which membership is assigned in advance, a priori. Arestis and Phelps (2016) perform an "endogeneity analysis" of output synchronization (differentiating output amplitude from concordance) using panel data (covering 1994 to 2013), for all members as well as for different country groups, including core, periphery, central and eastern European countries, northern European countries and the euro-candidate countries. The quantification of trade-related and direct spillover channels associated with monetary integration gives insights into the relative importance of direct and indirect (through trade) synchronisation gains arising from EMU membership.…”

Section: Core and Periphery In Optimum Currency Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Symmetry and Convergence in Monetary Unions

Macchiarelli

Campos

2018

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper has three main objectives, namely to (a) propose a new framework that can support placing countries along a core-periphery continuum (beyond the more common binary treatment as either core or periphery), (b) to construct a continuous dynamic theory-based measure (the first, to the best of our knowledge) illustrating the use of this framework for a set of European countries using yearly data from 1960 to 2015, and (c) provide a first preliminary assessment, based on endogenous Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory, of the main potential explanatory factors of the dynamics of this measure over time and across countries. Our main finding is that this new measure allows us to identify sets of countries on the basis of not only its level but also in terms of its dynamic behaviour. Using the Phillips-Sul procedure, we show the emergence a newer set of core countries (composed by Austria,

show abstract

Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU

Abstract: The sustainability of European economic and monetary union (EMU) remains an important issue in light of existing plans for enlargement. This paper conducts an endogeneity analysis of output

Cited by 9 publications

References 35 publications

The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone

Symmetry and Convergence in Monetary Unions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About