Endemic-epidemic modelling of school closure to prevent spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted daily life and changes to routines were made in accordance with public health regulations. In 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions were put in place to reduce exposure to and spread of the disease. The goal of this work was to quantify the effect of school closure during the first year of COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. This allowed us to determine the usefulness of school closures as a pandemic countermeasure for emerging coronaviruses in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. The use of multivariate endemic-epidemic modelling enabled us to analyse disease spread between age groups which we believe is a necessary inclusion in any model seeking to achieve our goal. Sophisticated time-varying contact matrices encapsulating four different contact settings were included in our complex statistical modelling approach to reflect the amount of school closure in place on a given day. Using the model, we projected case counts under various transmission scenarios (driven by implemented social distancing policies). We compared these counterfactual scenarios against the true levels of social distancing policies implemented, where schools closed in the spring and reopened in the autumn. We found that if schools had been kept open, the vast majority of additional cases would be expected among primary school-aged children with a small fraction of cases percolating into other age groups following the contact matrix structure. Under this scenario where schools were kept open, the cases were highly concentrated among the youngest age group. In the scenario where schools had remained closed, most reduction would also be expected in the lowest age group with less effects seen in other groups.