End-to-end verification of the ensemble precipitation-to-river-flow forecasting chain: how to maximise skill for the user and does the uncertainty propagate?
Abstract:<p>Forecasting the potential for flood-producing precipitation and any subsequent flooding is a challenging task; the process is highly non-linear and inherently uncertain. Acknowledging and accounting for the uncertainty in precipitation and flood forecasts has become increasingly important with the move to risk-based warning and guidance services which combine the likelihood of flooding with the potential impact on society and the environment.</p><p>A standard approa… Show more
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