Systems engineering must tackle the challenges of computational systems that are increasingly large-scale and software-intensive in terms of system size, component breadth and maturity, and development heterogeneity. This research describes and empirically evaluates techniques for generating predictive models for enabling large-scale system development and management. We describe two types of metric-driven decision models, decision trees and neural networks, which classify software components in large systems according to their likelihood of having user-specified properties such as high fault-proneness or high development effort. The metric-driven decision models enable coarse-grain analysis of large-scale multi-component heterogeneous systems, and they identify high-payoff areas for directing the application of finegrain analysis techniques for fault detection or redesign. The decision models serve as metric integration mechanisms that enable the synergistic use of numerous metrics simultaneously and integrate measurements collected by development tools or infrastructure. Model generation techniques automatically generate the decision models to calibrate them to new projects and organizations.We evaluate the predictive effectiveness of the decision models in terms of correctness, consistency, and completeness using fault and effort data from large NASA systems. Correctness is defined as the percent of components correctly identified, consistency is defined as 100% minus the percent of false positives, and completeness is defined as 100% minus the percent of false negatives. On average, the decision models had 83.44% correctness, 71.96% consistency, and 65.25% completeness in predictions of high fault and high effort software components. The network models had 89.63% correctness, 79.49% consistency, and 69.09% completeness, while the tree models had 77.25% correctness, 64.42% consistency, and 61.40% completeness. Non-parametric ANOVA comparisons showed that the network models were statistically more accurate than the tree models (α < 0.0001).