Employment, Transport Infrastructure, and Rural Depopulation: A New Spatial Equilibrium Model

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new spatial equilibrium model, and use it to discuss issues related to rural depopulation. The discussion focuses on how investments in transport infrastructure and the spatial distribution of basic sector jobs can promote a relatively balanced growth of peripheral and central areas of a region. Through interdependencies in individual migration decisions and an economic base multiplier mechanism, negative exogenous shocks may take a peripheral zone beyond a bifurcation point, into an equilibrium of dramatically lower population and employment. We study how the location of bifurcation points depend on spatial interaction behavioural parameters and variables subject to regional policy. We also discuss the issue of the timing of interventions intended to prevent a process of rural depopulation.

Rettslege rammer for klimavenleg energiproduksjon i utmarka: Utfordrar klimaomsynet legitimiteten til konsesjonsregelverket?

“…Skal vi med et enkelt sveip over dette området karakterisere en utvikling som mer enn noe annet har preget etterkrigstiden, så er det urbanisering og befolkningsnedgang. Urbaniseringen som forenklet sagt har trukket folk og funksjoner fra fjellet til sentrale strøk, det vil si langs kysten for Norges del (Arnesen et al, 2010;McArthur et al, 2014;Rye, 2006;Schmied, 2005). Desto mer påfallende er at i det samme fjellområdet bygges flere boliger enn noen gang, men altså som fritidsboliger i utmarka.…”

Some Consequences of Ignoring Relocations in the Cost–Benefit Analysis of Transportation Infrastructure Investments

“…This chapter utilises the spatial equilibrium model presented and developed in McArthur et al (2014). The core of the model centres on the definition of equilibrium, involving intra-regional migration and commuting flows corresponding to a specific spatial distribution of jobs and workers between the zones of a region.…”

Modelling Social Welfare Effects of Relocation and Road Pricing

“…The aim is to construct a matrix of migration probabilities of the type outlined in Naevdal et al (1996). In this paper, we follow the spatial equilibrium model presented in McArthur et al (2014), which incorporates the principles of the Naevdal et al (1996) approach. For technical details about how the ideas presented in this non-technical description are implemented, see Section B.D.…”

“…This mechanism can lead to interesting, non-linear effects such as virtuous and vicious circles. For an example of how negative shocks can lead to a vicious circle and depopulation, see McArthur et al (2014).…”

“…In this paper, we utilise the spatial equilibrium model presented in McArthur et al (2014) to analyse the possible suboptimality in road pricing schemes which could arise if relocations are ignored. The main advantage of this modelling approach is that it can capture some of the important effects of the more comprehensive LUTI models while requiring only a modest amount of data.…”