Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

Bossler, Mario

doi:10.1111/sjpe.12127

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…On the other hand, non-compliance could also dampen reactions on the labor market. This is potentially part of the the reason why Garloff (2016), Bossler and Gerner (2016) and Caliendo et al (2017) report that the minimum-wage reform has had no or only minor negative employment effects in the short run. …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By construction, as Sample 2 conditions on employment, analyses using this sample say nothing about the reform's effects on those who entered or left the labor force between 2014 and 2015. However, the short-term effects of the reform on employment are shown to be minor and thus negligible for our analysis (Mindestlohnkommission, 2016a;Bossler and Gerner, 2016;Caliendo et al, 2017).…”

Section: Working Samplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the short-term empirical evidence does not support such negative predictions. Using administrative data on regional employment and firm data, Garloff (2016), Bossler and Gerner (2016), and Caliendo et al (2017) find no or only small negative short-run employment effects. Rather, there is evidence that the reform led to the phenomenon of "mini-jobs" 3 being transformed into regular employment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Short-Term Distributional Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform

et al. 2017

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research at DIW BerlinThis series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German SocioEconomic Panel study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science.The decision to publish a submission in SOEPpapers is made by a board of editors chosen by the DIW Berlin to represent the wide range of disciplines covered by SOEP. There is no external referee process and papers are either accepted or rejected without revision. Papers appear in this series as works in progress and may also appear elsewhere. They often represent preliminary studies and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be requested from the author directly.Any opinions expressed in this series are those of the author(s) and not those of DIW Berlin.Research disseminated by DIW Berlin may include views on public policy issues, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. Working Paper AbstractThis study quantifies the short-term distributional effects of the new statutory minimum wage in Germany. Using detailed survey data (German Socio-Economic Panel), we assess changes in the distributions of hourly wages, contractual and actual working hours, and monthly earnings. Our descriptive results indicate growth at the bottom of the hourly wage distribution in the post-reform year, but also considerable noncompliance among eligible employees. In a second step, we employ a difference-in-differences analysis and exploit regional variation in the "bite" of the intervention, measured by the share of employees in a geographical region with wages below the minimum wage prior to the reform. We document the reform's positive effect at the bottom of the wage distribution. However, we find a negative effect of the reform on contractual hours worked, which explains why there is no effect on monthly earnings. Given that actual hours worked decrease less than contractual hours, our evidence suggests an increase in unpaid overt...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Working Samplementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Short-Term Distributional Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform

et al. 2017

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“…Our paper is further related to studies looking beyond effects of the minimum wage on employment levels. Bossler (2016Bossler ( , 2017 and Bossler and Gerner (2016) find negative effects on employment transitions, in particular hirings. These findings are corroborated by Bellmann et al (2016), who show that companies rarely responded to the minimum wage introduction by laying off workers but rather reduced hiring.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

The German Statutory Minimum Wage and Its Effects on Regional Employment and Unemployment

Bonin

Isphording

Krause-Pilatus

et al. 2019

Jahrbücher Für Nationalökonomie Und Statistik

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This paper studies the effects of the introduction of Germany’s statutory minimum wage in 2015 on employment and unemployment on the level of regional labor markets. Using variation in the regional exposure to the new wage floor, we employ a difference-in-differences approach that compares the evolution of employment and unemployment between regions with varying minimum wage bites. Overall, we find no statistically significant effect of the introduction of the German minimum wage on regular employment subject to social insurance, but a statistically significant negative effect on marginal employment. The reduction is not accompanied by a proportional increase in unemployment.

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“…1 The minimum wage was introduced in response to a period of two decades of a substantial decrease in collective bargaining coverage and an increase in wage inequality. The new minimum wage is largely binding, and employer expectations surveyed prior to the minimum wage introduction make adjustments in firm-financed training likely (Bossler 2017). Based on a biennial suggestion of the newly introduced minimum wage commission, the minimum wage can be adjusted by a legislative decree of the German Federal Government.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Training and minimum wages: first evidence from the introduction of the minimum wage in Germany

et al. 2017

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We analyze the short-run impact of the introduction of the new statutory minimum wage in Germany on further training at the workplace level. Applying difference-in-difference methods to data from the IAB Establishment Panel, we do not find a reduction in the training incidence but a slight reduction in the intensity of training at treated establishments. Effect heterogeneities reveal that the negative impact is mostly driven by employer-financed training. On the worker level, we observe a reduction of training for medium-and high-skilled employees but no significant effects on the training of low-skilled employees.

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Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

Cited by 22 publications

References 39 publications

The Short-Term Distributional Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform

The Short-Term Distributional Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform

The German Statutory Minimum Wage and Its Effects on Regional Employment and Unemployment

Training and minimum wages: first evidence from the introduction of the minimum wage in Germany

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