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IntroductionSupported by the OECD Jobs Study (1994) it has become common knowledge that receding employment is due to high payroll taxes, and that the provisions of welfare states, which are largely financed by mandatory payroll taxes, must be cut back to facilitate a return to full employment (for the case of Germany, see SVR, 1996). Following this view, European policymakers have recently begun to reign in welfare states by relieving employers of financial obligations, tightening regulations, qualifying eligibility conditions and narrowing the targets of social policy measures (cf. Rhodes, 1996). While there may be good reasons for such reforms, a crucial element in the political argument has remained without sufficient empirical support: the effect of payroll taxes on employment. This paper examines the evidence on this issue. Afterall, a policy of driving back the welfare state to reduce nonwage labor costs can only be expected to increase labor demand if payroll taxes do have negative effects on employment.Initial inspection of German data indeed indicates a negative relationship between payroll taxes and employment: Figure 1 shows that as the contribution rates to social insurances, i.e.payroll taxes paid by employers on...