Empirical Testing of the Hypothesis on the Structure of the Function of Private Savings in Russia

Abstract

The article deals with a topical issue of the discrepancies between savings and real investments in national economy. In the majority of theoretical models of contemporary neoclassical approach such nonequilibrium phenomena are of a purely temporary nature and a short term. However, the author having studied the data of twenty leading economies of the world shows that this discrepancy within the frameworks of capital formation is a rule for a long term but not an exception. The article presents the key findings of saving processes analysis in the Russian economy from 2000 to 2020 years based on the data of national statistics and the Bank of Russia. For research purposes the author introduces analytical categories — savings hoards, propensity to savings hoards and propensity to hoard. These very categories are put in the basis of the hypothesis on private national savings structure. Using post-Keynesian methodology and as a result of empirical analysis the author proves all the parts of the proposed hypothesis — gross private savings have sustained dependence from derived income; a part of savings is hoarded from consideration of “liquidity preference” and the share of such savings functionally depends on fluctuations in economic uncertainty (but not from economy’s absolute value); for Russian Federal subjects precautionary motive prevails over profit motive when allocating the savings base.