Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal

Themeßl, Matthias; Gobiet, Andreas; Heinrich, Georg

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4

Cited by 496 publications

(426 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

408

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Rivington et al, 2008;Themessl et al, 2012) and, more importantly, that this degrades Figure 9, but for the projected changes over the winter months (December-February). This figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj further when quantifying extreme rainfall events that are the cause of floods -the interest of this paper.…”

Section: To Mos or Not To Mosmentioning

confidence: 92%

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Cloke

Wetterhall

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

105

103

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 'ENSEMBLES' project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble.The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding.

show abstract

Section: To Mos or Not To Mosmentioning

confidence: 92%

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Cloke

Wetterhall

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

105

103

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…QM has regularly shown to outperform other statistical bias correction methods (e. g., Seibert, 2012, 2013), is 5 applicable in mountain regions (e. g., Finger et al, 2012;Themeßl et al, 2011b, a), and allows for correcting climate variables other than temperature and precipitation (e. g., Finger et al, 2012;Wilcke et al, 2013). Like most statistical bias correction methods, QM does not explicitly account for spatial, temporal, or intervariable correlations, however it has shown to perform well under changed climatic conditions (Teutschbein and Seibert, 2013) and to retain intervariable relations (Wilcke et al, 2013).…”

Section: Spatial Downscaling Of Rcm Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Hanzer¹,

Förster²,

Nemec³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios as forcing data. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

show abstract

“…Quantile-mapping was applied based on Themeßl et al (2012). Empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of climate models were mapped to the CDFs from the observed data for each month of the year over 1950 to 2009 for the rainproxy and 1980-2009 for the QCAPE-proxy.…”

Section: Future Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Future trends in debris flow activity are constructed based on bias-corrected climate change projections using two meteorological proxies: daily precipitation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) combined with specific humidity for two Alpine areas. Along with a comparison between proxies, future number of days with debris flows are analyzed with respect to different regional and global climate models, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and area for quantile mapping. Two different base periods are also analyzed, as debris flows were observed on only 6 (17) days between 1950 and 1979, yet on 18 (49) days between 1980 and 2009 for Fella River, NE Italy (Barcelonnette, SE French Alps). For both areas, future climate projections vary between no change up to an increase of 6.0 % per decade in days with debris flow occurrences towards the end of 21st century. In Barcelonnette, the base period and proxy have a bigger impact on the future number of debris flow days than the climate model or RCP used. In Fella River, the base period, RCP, and proxy used define the future range. Therefore the selection of proxy, base period and downscaling technique should be carefully considered for future climate change impact studies concerning debris flow activity and associated fast-moving landslides.

show abstract

Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal

Cited by 496 publications

References 36 publications

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About