Empirical Run‐Time Bias Correction for Antarctic Regional Climate Projections With a Stretched‐Grid AGCM

Krinner, Gerhard; Beaumet, Julien; Favier, Vincent; Déqué, Michel; Brutel‐Vuilmet, Claire

doi:10.1029/2018ms001438

Cited by 15 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…6) bear many similarities with the signature of a positive SAM pattern on Antarctic precipitation assessed in a RACMO2 ERA-Interim driven simulation in Marshall et al (2017). It is noteworthy that the link between circulation changes induced by the bias correction and ensuing precipitation changes seen in our simulations is very similar to the effect of bias corrections in the LMDZ model reported by Krinner et al (2019a).…”

Section: Surface Mass Balance and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Larger differences in sea-level pressure projected changes found over the Pacific sector in our atmosphere corrected experiment are also consistent with this results from Bracegirdle et al (2013) who found that the historical state dependence was stronger in this area. In similar experiments conducted with LMDZ model (Krinner et al, 2019a) with different oceanic forcings, a smaller decrease (increase) of the high latitudes low (mid-latitudes highs) pressure is also found. The magnitude of these difference is however much more reduced when compared to the results with ARPEGE.…”

Section: Large-scale Atmospheric Circulationsupporting

confidence: 62%

“…Following the method presented by Guldberg et al (2005), we use the climatological mean correction terms of a nudged ARPEGE simulation to build a climatology of the tendency errors of the atmospheric model in a first step. A recent study applying a similar method has been performed for Antarctic climate change (Krinner et al, 2019a) using the LMDZ model, the atmospheric component of the IPSL coupled climate model. The second step consists in adding a term derived from the climatology of the model drift to the prognostic equations of the model, in order to correct in-line (at each time step) selected atmospheric state variables (see below).…”

Section: Empirical Bias Correction Of the Agcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections

Beaumet

Déqué

Krinner

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. In this study, we use run-time bias-correction to correct for ARPEGE atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The improvements with respect to the AMIP-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere are significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in-situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the Southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature (+7.7 and +9 %.K−1) found is also higher than previous estimates. Highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low.

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Section: Surface Mass Balance and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Large-scale Atmospheric Circulationsupporting

confidence: 62%

Section: Empirical Bias Correction Of the Agcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections

Beaumet

Déqué

Krinner

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…All projections show a pressure increase at mid-latitudes (30-50 • S) and a decrease around Antarctica. This corresponds to a strengthening of the mid-to high-latitude pressure gradient (positive phase of the SAM) and a poleward shift of the circum-Antarctic low-pressure belt towards the continent, which are generally the expected consequences of 21st century radiative forcing (Kushner et al, 2001;Arblaster and Meehl, 2006). This pattern (increase at mid-latitude, decrease around Antarctica) is sharper in projections realised with MIROC-ESM SSCs.…”

Section: Atmospheric General Circulationmentioning

confidence: 91%

Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

et al. 2019

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Abstract. Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these changes using dynamical downscaling of coupled climate model projections still bears considerable uncertainties due to poorly represented high-southern-latitude atmospheric circulation and sea surface conditions (SSCs), that is sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration. This study evaluates the Antarctic surface climate simulated using a global high-resolution atmospheric model and assesses the effects on the simulated Antarctic surface climate of two different SSC data sets obtained from two coupled climate model projections. The two coupled models from which SSCs are taken, MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M, simulate future Antarctic sea ice trends at the opposite ends of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection range. The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid configuration in order to achieve an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over the 1981–2010 period, ARPEGE is driven by the SSCs from MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M and CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSCs. These three simulations are evaluated against the ERA-Interim reanalyses for atmospheric general circulation as well as the MAR regional climate model and in situ observations for surface climate. For the late 21st century, SSCs from the same coupled climate models forced by the RCP8.5 emission scenario are used both directly and bias-corrected with an anomaly method which consists in adding the future climate anomaly from coupled model projections to the observed SSCs with taking into account the quantile distribution of these anomalies. We evaluate the effects of driving the atmospheric model by the bias-corrected instead of the original SSCs. For the simulation using SSCs from NorESM1-M, no significantly different climate change signals over Antarctica as a whole are found when bias-corrected SSCs are used. For the simulation driven by MIROC-ESM SSCs, a significant additional increase in precipitation and in winter temperatures for the Antarctic Ice Sheet is obtained when using bias-corrected SSCs. For the range of Antarctic warming found (+3 to +4 K), we confirm that snowfall increase will largely outweigh increases in melt and rainfall. Using the end members of sea ice trends from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projections, the difference in warming obtained (∼ 1 K) is much smaller than the spread of the CMIP5 Antarctic warming projections. This confirms that the errors in representing the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in climate models are also determinant for the diversity of their projected late 21st century Antarctic climate change.

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“…E is evaporation; P is precipitation; R is river runoff; B is Black Sea discharge into the Mediterranean Sea. OBS is a summary from Sanchez-Gomez et al (2011) for P , E and P -E, from Ludwig et al (2009) for R, from Lacombe and Tchernia (1972), Stanev et al (2000) and Kourafalou and Barbopoulos (2003) for B. River discharges in HIST are from the climatology of Ludwig et al, (2009). PICTRL uses the Nile of its preindustrial (pre-damming) value (2930 m 3 s −1 ) annually (Rivdis database; Vorosmarty et al, 1998).…”

Section: Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a sequential tool, LMDZ-NEMO-med-V1, to conduct global-to-regional past climate simulation for the Mediterranean basin: an Early Holocene case study

Vadsaria¹,

Li²,

Ramstein³

et al. 2020

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. Recently, major progress has been made in the simulation of the ocean dynamics of the Mediterranean using atmospheric and oceanic models with high spatial resolution. High resolution is essential to accurately capture the synoptic variability required to initiate intermediate- and deep-water formation, the engine of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTC). In paleoclimate studies, one major problem with the simulation of regional climate changes is that boundary conditions are not available from observations or data reconstruction to drive high-resolution regional models. One consistent way to advance paleoclimate modelling is to use a comprehensive global-to-regional approach. However, this approach needs long-term integration to reach equilibrium (hundreds of years), implying enormous computational resources. To tackle this issue, a sequential architecture of a global–regional modelling platform has been developed for the first time and is described in detail in this paper. First of all, the platform is validated for the historical period. It is then used to investigate the climate and in particular, the oceanic circulation, during the Early Holocene. This period was characterised by a large reorganisation of the MTC that strongly affected oxygen supply to the intermediate and deep waters, which ultimately led to an anoxic crisis (called sapropel). Beyond the case study shown here, this platform may be applied to a large number of paleoclimate contexts from the Quaternary to the Pliocene, as long as regional tectonics remain mostly unchanged. For example, the climate responses of the Mediterranean basin during the last interglacial period (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Late Pliocene all present interesting scientific challenges which may be addressed using this numerical platform.

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Empirical Run‐Time Bias Correction for Antarctic Regional Climate Projections With a Stretched‐Grid AGCM

Cited by 15 publications

References 61 publications

Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections

Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections

Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

Development of a sequential tool, LMDZ-NEMO-med-V1, to conduct global-to-regional past climate simulation for the Mediterranean basin: an Early Holocene case study

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