Empirical prediction model for ground motion intensity due to aftershock

Hirose, Mitsuhito; Itoi, Tatsuya; Takada, Tsuyoshi

doi:10.1201/b16387-645

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…methods to evaluate the hazards of aftershocks have been deemed to be particularly effective in improving decision-making and planning due to various uncertainties that are associated with earthquakes in terms of the location, scale, and frequency of aftershocks [2,3]. Multiple studies of aftershock hazard analyses were conducted after the Niigata Chuetsu earthquake in 2004 [4][5][6][7]. Standard analysis methods were proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion to design probabilistic aftershock occurrence models [8].…”

Section: Aftershock Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis

et al. 2017

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Abstract:After the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, we observed that aftershocks tended to occur in a wide region after such a large earthquake. These aftershocks resulted in secondary damage or delayed rescue and recovery activities. In addition, it has been reported that there are regions where the intensity of the vibrations owing to the aftershocks was much stronger than those associated with the main shock. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the seismic risk associated with aftershocks. We used the data regarding aftershocks that was obtained from the Tohoku earthquake and various other historically large earthquakes. We investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershocks using the Gutenberg-Richter law and the modified Omori law. Subsequently, we previously proposed a probabilistic aftershock occurrence model that is expected to be useful to develop plans for recovery activities after future large earthquakes. In this study, the probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to create aftershock hazard maps. We propose a hazard map focusing on the probability of aftershocks on the scale of the main shock for use with a recovery activity plan. Following the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we focus on the simultaneous occurrence of tsunamis and aftershocks just after a great subduction earthquake. The probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to derive load combination equations of the load and resistance factor design. This design is intended to simultaneously consider tsunamis and aftershocks for tsunami-resistant designs of tsunami evacuation buildings.

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Section: Aftershock Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multiple studies of aftershock hazard analyses were conducted after the Niigata Chuetsu earthquake in 2004 [4][5][6][7]. Standard analysis methods were proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion to design probabilistic aftershock occurrence models [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%