Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on Long-Term Profile Evolution of Tidal Flats along a Curved Coast in the Qiantang River Estuary, China

Abstract

Tidal flats are dynamic coastal ecosystems continually reshaped by natural processes and human activities. This study investigates the application of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to the long-term profile evolution of tidal flats along the Jiansan Bend of the Qiantang River Estuary, China. By applying EOF analysis to profiles observed from 1984 to 2023, this study identifies dominant modes of variability and their spatial and temporal characteristics, offering insights into the complex sediment transport and morphological evolution processes. EOF analysis helps unravel the complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic factors shaping tidal flats, with the first three eigenfunctions accounting for over 90% of the observed variance. The first spatial eigenfunction captures the primary trend, while the subsequent two eigenfunctions reveal secondary and tertiary modes of variability. A conceptual model developed in this study elucidates the interplay between hydrodynamic forces and morphological changes, highlighting the rotation and oscillation of tidal flat profiles in response to seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of EOF analysis in capturing significant geomorphological processes and underscore its potential in enhancing the understanding of tidal flat dynamics, thereby informing more effective management and conservation strategies for these critical coastal environments.