Empirical Methods for Forecasting the Maximum Storm Tide Due to Hurricanes and Other Tropical Storms

Conner, W. C.; Kraft, Raymond H.; Harris, D. Lee

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1957)085<0113:emfftm>2.0.co;2

Cited by 51 publications

(32 citation statements)

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“…This procedure yielded 12 values in each ring. 2 These values were plotted on polar co-ordinate paper and analyzed with qualitative extension to the storm center. Tangential and radial components of the relative vector winds were also computed and analyzed.…”

Section: Mean Wind Distributionsupporting

confidence: 69%

“…Fletcher [3], for example, has developed a formula for computing maximum wind speed when the central pressure is known. Hoover [4] and Conner, Kraft, and Harris [2] have found relations between central pressure and high tides. Unfortunately, central pressure is only occasionally directly observed in hurricanes when a ship happens to be caught in its path, when a storm passes over an observatory on a small island, or when it is penetrated by low-level reconnaissance aircraft.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Relation Between the Mass Circulation Through Hurricanes and their Intensity

Krueger

1959

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Section: Mean Wind Distributionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Relation Between the Mass Circulation Through Hurricanes and their Intensity

Krueger

1959

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…Thus the maximum storm surge plus the highest spring tide is used for analysis of the potential of coastal inundation. Conner et al (1957) proposed that a larger center of low pressure would lead to the recording of a higher wind speed at a station and thus derived an empirical formula in terms of a single parameter, the pressure at the center of the storm, to forecast the value of the extreme storm surge. Horikawa (1978) proposed that, in addition to pressure, the wind speed and wind direction should also be taken into consideration in the estimation of storm surges.…”

Section: Empirical Formulamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The simplest method for forecasting the maximum storm surge is to use an empirical formula (Conner et al, 1957;Horikawa, 1978). Generally, storm surges have been predicted using numerical methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of models for maximum and time variation of storm surges at the Tanshui estuary

Tsai

You

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this study, artificial neural networks, including both multilayer perception and the radial basis function neural networks, are applied for modeling and forecasting the maximum and time variation of storm surges at the Tanshui estuary in Taiwan. The physical parameters, including both the local atmospheric pressure and the wind field factors, for finding the maximum storm surges, are first investigated based on the training of neural networks. Then neural network models for forecasting the time series of storm surges are accordingly developed using the major meteorological parameters with time variations. The time series of storm surges for six typhoons were used for training and testing the models, and data for three typhoons were used for model forecasting. The results show that both neural network models perform very well for the forecasting of the time variation of storm surges.

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“…Worldwide, numerous research groups and organizations have been working on storm-surge predictions since late 1950s. One can find the pioneering efforts by various workers 48,[51][52][53][54][55] on storm-surge studies. The SPLASH model developed by Jelesnianski 56 performed real-time forecasting of hurricane-induced surge along the Gulf and Atlantic coast of the United States.…”

Section: Numerical Modelling Of Storm Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Inundation Research:An overview of the Process

2017

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Coastal inundation is the flooding of coastal zone resulting from increased river discharge, spring tides, severe storms, or generation of powerful waves from tectonic activity (tsunami). This article discusses the critical factors that contribute to coastal inundation. Among the probable factors that cause coastal flooding and destruction, storm surge is the most frequent, and hence this article provides a detailed evaluation of the progress made in storm inundation research. Recent advances in coastal inundation modelling include efforts to understand the nonlinear dynamic interaction of near-shore waves, wind and atmospheric pressure with still water sea level and coastal currents, and their combined effects on storm surge along the coast and interaction with coastal morphology. An advanced storm-surge model comprises different modules, viz. an atmospheric component, and two ocean components for surge and wave simulations; these modules are coupled with each other. The nesting of regional coastal model with an ocean-wide model captures the far-field boundary forcing of extreme events that usually originate from the warm open ocean. Even though significant advancements reported on the efficiency and accuracy of storm surge and inundation prediction, further studies are required to understand the nonlinear interaction of storm surge with coastal landforms and their vegetation (land cover). In the context of rising sea level, increased tropical cyclone activity and rapid shoreline change, it is pertinent to evaluate the future flooding risk associated with landfall of tropical cyclones in densely populated coastal cities.

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Empirical Methods for Forecasting the Maximum Storm Tide Due to Hurricanes and Other Tropical Storms

Cited by 51 publications

References 1 publication

A Relation Between the Mass Circulation Through Hurricanes and their Intensity

A Relation Between the Mass Circulation Through Hurricanes and their Intensity

Development of models for maximum and time variation of storm surges at the Tanshui estuary

Coastal Inundation Research:An overview of the Process

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