Empirical mass balance modelling of South American tropical glaciers: case study of Antisana volcano, Ecuador

Manciati, Carla; Villacís, Marcos; Taupin, Jean-Denis; Cadier, Éric; Galárraga-Sánchez, Remigio; Cáceres, B.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.888490

Cited by 22 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The lower melt factor at this time dampens the intensity of melt, possibly because of the absence of heat transfer from rain (Francou, 2004), but it nonetheless simulates among the highest melt volumes of the simulation period ( Figure 5(a)), consistent with other studies showing increased melt in response to El Niño events in the Andes (Francou, 2004;Veettil et al, 2014a;Manciati et al, 2014;Maussion et al, 2015;Veettil et al, 2016). Huss et al (2009) …”

supporting

confidence: 77%

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Saberi¹,

McLaughlin²,

Ng³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate models predict amplified warming at high elevations in low latitudes, making tropical glacierized regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems in the world. Observations reveal decreasing streamflow due to retreating glaciers in the Andes, which hold 99% of all tropical glaciers. However, the timescales over which meltwater contributes to streamflow and the pathways it takes -surface and subsurface -remain uncertain, hindering our ability to predict how shrinking glaciers will impact water resources. Two major contributors to this uncertainty are the sparsity of hydrologic mea-5 surements in tropical glacierized watersheds and the complication of hydrograph separation where there is year-round glacier melt. We address these challenges using a multi-method approach that employs repeat hydrochemical mixing model analysis, hydroclimatic time series analysis, and integrated watershed modeling. Each of these approaches interrogates distinct timescale relationships among meltwater, groundwater, and stream discharge. Our results challenge the commonly held conceptual model that glaciers buffer discharge variability. Instead, in a sub-humid watershed on Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, meltwater drives 10 nearly all the variability in discharge (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.89 in simulations), with glaciers contributing a broad range of 20-60% or wider of discharge, mostly (86%) through surface runoff on hourly timescales, but also through infiltration that increases annual groundwater contributions by nearly 20%. We further found that rainfall may enhance melt contributions to discharge at timescales that complement melt generation, possibly explaining why minimum discharge occurred at the study site during warm but dry El Niño conditions, which typically heighten melt in the Andes. Our findings caution against extrap-15 olations from isolated measurements: stream discharge and meltwater contributions in tropical glacierized systems can change substantially at hourly to interannual timescales, due to climatic variability and surface to subsurface flow processes.

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supporting

confidence: 77%

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Saberi¹,

McLaughlin²,

Ng³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…Two recent papers by Manciati et al . [] reconstructed surface mass balance of the Antisana 15 glacier since 1891 utilizing nearby meteorological records. They regressed time series of temperature and precipitation against mass balance and tested simple and multiregression models.…”

Section: Modeling Andean Glaciers and Climate Changes At Specific Locmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling modern glacier response to climate changes along the Andes Cordillera: A multiscale review

Fernández

Mark

2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Here we review the literature preferentially concerned with modern glacier-climate modeling along the Andes. We find a diverse range of modeling approaches, from empirical/statistical models to relatively complex energy balance procedures. We analyzed these models at three different spatial scales. First, we review global approaches that have included the Andes. Second, we depict and analyze modeling exercises aimed at studying Andean glaciers as a whole. Our revision shows only two studies dealing with glacier modeling at this continental scale. We contend that this regional approach is increasingly necessary because it allows for connecting the ''average-out'' tendency of global studies to local observations or models, in order to comprehend scales of variability and heterogeneity. Third, we revise small-scale modeling, finding that the overwhelming number of studies have targeted glaciers in Patagonia. We also find that most studies use temperature-index models and that energy balance models are still not widely utilized. However, there is no clear spatial pattern of model complexity. We conclude with a discussion of both the limitations of certain approaches, as for example the use of short calibration periods for long-term modeling, and also the opportunities for improved understanding afforded by new methods and techniques, such as climatic downscaling. We also propose ways to future developments, in which observations and models can be combined to improve current understanding of volumetric glacier changes and their climate causes.

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“…Another approach is to use observed relations between the MB and atmospheric variables or global circulation indexes in order to build statistical models that predict glacier MB (see Hoinkes, 1968, for a probably very first attempt in this direction). Several variations of this method have been applied to glaciers in Northern Europe (Mernild et al, 2014;Trachsel and Nesje, 2015), northern America (Hodge et al, 1998;Shea and Marshall, 2007) and in the Tropics (Manciati et al, 2014). All these studies use the MB as the predicted variable and do not use the terminology of "downscaling", that is extensively used in climate research.…”

Section: F Maussion Et Al: Enso Influence On Shallap Glacier Cordimentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate variability in the tropical Andes, where recent Niño and Niña events left an observable footprint on glacier mass balance. The nature and strength of the relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance, however, varies between regions and time periods, leaving several unanswered questions about its exact mechanisms. The starting point of this study is a 4-year long time series of distributed surface energy and mass balance (SEB/SMB) calculated using a process-based model driven by observations at Shallap Glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). These data are used to calibrate a regression-based downscaling model that links the local SEB/SMB fluxes to atmospheric reanalysis variables on a monthly basis, allowing an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on the SEB/SMB at climatological time scales (1980-2013. We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported. This relationship is most pronounced during the wet season (December-May) and at low altitudes where Niño (Niña) events are accompanied with a snowfall deficit (excess) and a higher (lower) radiation energy input. We detect a weaker but significant ENSO anticorrelation with total precipitation (Niño dry signal) and positive correlation with the sensible heat flux, but find no ENSO influence on sublimation. Sensitivity analyses comparing several downscaling methods and reanalysis data sets resulted in stable mass balance correlations with Pacific SST but also revealed large uncertainties in computing the mass balance trend of the last decades. The newly introduced open-source downscaling tool can be applied easily to other glaciers in the tropics, opening new research possibilities on even longer time scales.

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Empirical mass balance modelling of South American tropical glaciers: case study of Antisana volcano, Ecuador

Cited by 22 publications

References 38 publications

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Modeling modern glacier response to climate changes along the Andes Cordillera: A multiscale review

ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

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