Empirical Analysis of the Volatility Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic Process on Natural Gas Future Transactions in Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the volatility movements in natural gas returns, which is one of the financial investment instruments in futures markets, before and after the Covid-19 pandemic, using GARCH family models. For this purpose, daily data from 30.08.2017 to 10.03.2020 before the Covid-19 Pandemic, and daily data from 11.03.2020 to 21.09.2021 after the Covid-19 Pandemic were used. The return on natural gas futures before the Covid-19 Pandemic was expressed as RLNPO and the return on natural gas futures after the Covid-19 Pandemic was expressed as RLNPS. For RLNPO, TGARCH was determined as the most suitable volatility model according to Schwarz Information Criteria, and EGARCH was determined as the most suitable volatility model for RLNPS. As a result of these analyzes, it has been seen that natural gas futures returns can be explained by asymmetric volatility models before and after the Covid-19 Pandemic, but there is no leverage effect as a result of asymmetric volatility, and positive shock asymmetries have a greater effect on volatility. The asymmetric effect tends to decrease in the post-Covid-19 Pandemic period.