Empirical analysis of the push factors of human capital flight in Nigeria

Abstract

Purpose Human capital flight from Nigeria to developed countries has remained a topical issue. This paper aims to empirically analyze the push factors for the migrants who explore the various legal migrant schemes from a macro perspective. The authors examine human capital development and its role in contributing to human capital flight to more developed counties. Design/methodology/approach This paper is anchored on the push–pull model. Using secondary data from 1990 to 2019, the authors look at the relationship between human capital flight and variables such as life expectancy, infant mortality rate, population growth rate and Nigeria’s unemployment rate. The auto-regressive lag model (ARDL) was adopted to estimate the empirical relationship among these variables. Findings The results from the ARDL model suggest a positive relationship exists between population growth rate and migration rate. A negative relationship was, however, observed between life expectancy and migration rate. This study also found that an increase in the infant mortality rate negatively impacted migration significantly. Therefore, an increase in infant mortality rate lowered the migration rate. Finally, an increase in the unemployment rate increased migration; however, insignificantly. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study are limited to the push factors influencing migration out of Nigeria. These factors are also restricted to variables for which data can be derived under the study’s scope. The results of this study have far-reaching implications, especially for policymakers and citizens alike. Better human capital development through enhanced life expectancy and reduced population in Nigeria will reduce the migration rate. Therefore, this study calls for the doubling of developmental and infrastructural efforts at all levels of governance. Originality/value This paper’s importance lies in its ability to elucidate push factors that influenced migration out of Nigeria empirically. An empirical approach to the subject matter will explain these factors and the degree to which they influence migration. This will guide the policy-making process in curbing brain drain, which is a major challenge in Nigeria.

Human capital flight and output growth nexus: evidence from Nigeria

“…On the other hand, Vecchione (2018) focused on the Italian economy and found that high skilled migration drastically reduced human capital accumulation in Italy The findings showed that migration negatively impacted human capital development. These findings imply that the problem of human development may be a cause and effect of human capital flight as revealed by Tabassum et al (2017), Adeosun and Popogbe (2020); and Popogbe and Adeosun (2020). The study by Docquier and Rapoport (2012) further revealed that uncontrolled high-skilled migration led to a shortage of health workers in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010, which, in turn, led to worsened health status.…”

“…However, the study by Popogbe and Adeosun (2020) revealed that increased population growth rate and poor life expectancy increases the likelihood of migrating out of Nigeria. Indeed, Adeosun and Popogbe (2020) affirmed that the increasing population has always been to the disadvantage of the Nigerian economy.…”

“…Again, Nigeria is one of the many countries experiencing a high rate of human capital flight and understanding the impact of this on output growth, in the long run, is a welcome development. Furthermore, the reviews have shown that many studies carried out in Nigeria either examined the factors that contributed to migration (Ndulu, 2010;Joshua et al, 2014;Egbefo, 2014;Tabassum et al, 2017;Ajide and Alimi, 2018;Popogbe and Adeosun, 2020) or examined the impact of remittances on the Human capital flight and output growth home economies (Anetor, 2019;Mago, 2018;Azizi, 2018). On another hand, while the studies by Henry (2013) and Okonkwo et al (2020) on the impact of capital flight on economic growth in Nigeria have a semblance of our current study; however, it is important to note that human capital flight and capital flight are two distinct concepts.…”

“…Yamin and Luna (2016) opined that push factors such as infrastructure, lack of job opportunity, unavailable higher education facilities among other factors “push” migrants out of their home country. However, the study by Popogbe and Adeosun (2020) revealed that increased population growth rate and poor life expectancy increases the likelihood of migrating out of Nigeria. Indeed, Adeosun and Popogbe (2020) affirmed that the increasing population has always been to the disadvantage of the Nigerian economy.…”

Engaging Honduran Science Diasporas for Development: Evidence From Three Consolidated Networks

“…Such mobility has been less examined when considering the establishment of permanent residence of such scientific workforce in advanced countries (long-term immigration) as opposed to quick schemes of mobility (i.e., participation in training and short-term educational programs). As the global competition to attract highly educated individuals has intensified, the emergence of phenomena, known as “brain drain” (Durmaz, 2020 ), “human capital flight” (Popogbe and Oluyemi, 2020 ), and “academic exodus” (Heffernan and Heffernan, 2020 ), has dominated the literature. These concepts assume the loss of talented and outstanding professionals who flee from one country or region (developing) instead of another (developed).…”