Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Drought Risk Perception: Objective Factors, Personal Circumstances, and Social Influence

Abstract

Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions.

Evaluation of Socio-Economic Factors that Determine Adoption of Climate Compatible Freshwater Supply Measures at Farm Level: a Case Study in the Southwest Netherlands

“…On average, farmers in the sample were slightly younger and better educated than the overall population they were thought to represent, but the differences were found to be small (Van Duinen et al 2015). In the survey, arable farmers (81 % compared to 70 %) and those growing fruit and flowers were over-represented compared to farmers growing grass and corn (12 % compared to 26 % of the actual population).…”

“…While economic factors are important, it becomes increasingly recognized that decisionmaking in a risk context is seldomly perfectly rational and that behavioural factors such as risk perception along with perceived costs, benefits and self-efficacy affect individual adaptive decision-making (Dang et al 2014;Gebrehiwot and van der Veen 2015;Grothmann and Patt 2005;Liu 2013;Pidgeon and Fischhoff 2011;Schwarz and Ernst 2009). Research shows, for example, that farmers' drought risk perceptions are biased due to drought risk experience, perceived behavioural control and social networks (Tang et al 2013;Van Duinen et al 2015;Wheeler et al 2013). Biased risk perceptions could give rise to risky behaviour or excessively protective behaviour.…”

“…Some of the survey results (Van Duinen et al 2015) are further explored to examine how the results agree with or differ from the experiences in the GO-FRESH project.…”

“…Survey requests and reminders were sent by email and by mail (Goeree Overflakkee) with the invitation to participate (online or by post). The 1474 survey requests, elicited 142 replies (response rate 9 %) (Van Duinen et al 2015).…”

“…Within the project 'Balancing supply and demand of freshwater', a survey was conducted in the southwest of the Netherlands to elicit farmers 'risk perceptions and adaptive behaviour to drought (van Duinen et al 2014;Van Duinen et al 2015). The survey analyses the attitude of potential users of the new technologies with respect to the feasibility of drought mitigation measures over time at a certain moment (Spring 2013).…”