Emissions Implications of Future Natural Gas Production and Use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain Region

McLeod, J.; Brinkman, Gregory; Milford, Jana B.

doi:10.1021/es5029537

Cited by 11 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The future scenarios examined in this study were developed by McLeod et al (2014) using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) least-cost planning model with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s nine-region (US9R) energy system database . This model provides annual emissions by energy sector for nine U.S. regions at five-year intervals over a 50-year planning horizon, accounting for pollution control requirements and numerous other system constraints .…”

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This model provides annual emissions by energy sector for nine U.S. regions at five-year intervals over a 50-year planning horizon, accounting for pollution control requirements and numerous other system constraints . The “2030 baseline” scenario assumes a natural gas price and supply based on Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections published in 2013 . The “cheap gas” scenario assumes an abundant supply of natural gas at lower prices, corresponding to the 2013 AEO high resource scenario .…”

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The “2030 baseline” scenario assumes a natural gas price and supply based on Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections published in 2013 . The “cheap gas” scenario assumes an abundant supply of natural gas at lower prices, corresponding to the 2013 AEO high resource scenario . The contrasting “costly gas” scenario assumes a limited supply of natural gas at higher prices, corresponding to the 2013 AEO low resource scenario .…”

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fees applied were $55 (2011 $) per metric ton of CO 2 and $1400 (2011 $) per metric ton of CH 4 based on the Interagency Working Group’s (2013) social cost of carbon for a 3% discount rate . The MARKAL results yielded annual generation from wind in the western U.S. ranging from 83 TWh in the baseline scenario to 268 TWh in the GHG fees scenario …”

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Emissions and Ozone Air Quality Impacts of Future Scenarios for Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain States

Nsanzineza

Capps

Milford

2019

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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This study examines air quality impacts of scenarios for energy production and use in 2030 across Colorado, northern New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Scenarios feature contrasting levels of oil and gas production and shares of electricity from coal, natural gas, and renewables. Hourly emissions are resolved for individual power plants; oil and gas emissions are basin-specific. Ozone decreased from 2011 to the 2030 baseline, with median and 90th percentile reductions in maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone across the four-state domain of 3.5 and 7.1 ppb, respectively, resulting in 200 fewer premature deaths annually. Relative to the 2030 baseline, MDA8 ozone increased in the “cheap gas” scenario, with median and 90th percentile increases of 0.1 and 1.0 ppb, and declined in a scenario with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees, with median and 90th percentile reductions of 0.2 and 1.5 ppb. Reduced coal generation lowered SO2 emissions in all future scenarios compared to 2011. GHG emissions from electricity and oil and gas production declined by 4% (CO2-equivalent) from 2011 to the 2030 baseline, increased by 10% from the 2030 baseline to the cheap gas scenario, and declined by 28% from the 2030 baseline to the GHG fees scenario.

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Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling Emissions and Ozone Air Quality Impacts of Future Scenarios for Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain States

Nsanzineza

Capps

Milford

2019

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…The transition from coal to gas in the electric sector also has upstream GHG and air pollutant emission implications. McLeod et al (2014) explored both GHG and air pollution emissions from natural gas production in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region for a variety of scenarios. Pacsi et al (2013) examined air quality impacts of electricity generation from high natural gas use in Texas considering upstream emissions from coal mining and shale gas production.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating upstream emissions into electric sector nitrogen oxide reduction targets

Babaee

Loughlin

Kaplan

2020

Cleaner Engineering and Technology

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Electricity production is a major source of air pollutants in the U.S. Policies to reduce these emissions typically result in the power industry choosing to apply controls or switch to fuels with lower combustion emissions. However, the life-cycle emissions associated with various fuels can differ considerably, potentially impacting the effectiveness of fuel switching. Life-cycle emissions include emissions from extracting, processing, transporting, and distributing fuels, as well as manufacturing and constructing new generating capacity. The field of life-cycle analysis allows quantification of these emissions. While life-cycle emissions are often considered in greenhouse gas mitigation targets, they generally have not been included in air quality policymaking. We demonstrate such an approach, examining a hypothetical electric sector emission reduction target for nitrogen oxides (NO x ) using the Global Change Assessment Model with U.S. state-level resolution. When only power plant emissions are considered in setting a NOx emission reduction target, fuel switching leads to an increase in upstream emissions that offsets 5% of the targeted reductions in 2050. When fuel extraction, processing, and transport emissions are included under the reduction target, accounting for 20% of overall NO x reduction goal, the resulting control strategy meets the required reductions and does so at 35% lower cost by 2050. However, manufacturing and construction emissions increase and offset up to 7% of NO x reductions in electric sector, indicating that it may be beneficial to consider these sources as well. Assuming no legal obstacles exist, life-cycle-based approaches could be implemented by allowing industry to earn reduction credits for reducing upstream emissions. We discuss some of the limitations of such an approach, including the difficulty in identifying the location of upstream emissions, which may occur across regulatory authorities or even outside of the U.S.

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A review of the public health impacts of unconventional natural gas development

Saunders

McCoy

Goldstein

et al. 2016

Environ Geochem Health

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The public health impact of hydraulic fracturing remains a high profile and controversial issue. While there has been a recent surge of published papers, it remains an under-researched area despite being possibly the most substantive change in energy production since the advent of the fossil fuel economy. We review the evidence of effects in five public health domains with a particular focus on the UK: exposure, health, socio-economic, climate change and seismicity. While the latter would seem not to be of significance for the UK, we conclude that serious gaps in our understanding of the other potential impacts persist together with some concerning signals in the literature and legitimate uncertainties derived from first principles. There is a fundamental requirement for high-quality epidemiological research incorporating real exposure measures, improved understanding of methane leakage throughout the process, and a rigorous analysis of the UK social and economic impacts. In the absence of such intelligence, we consider it prudent to incentivise further research and delay any proposed developments in the UK. Recognising the political realities of the planning and permitting process, we make a series of recommendations to protect public health in the event of hydraulic fracturing being approved in the UK.

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Emissions Implications of Future Natural Gas Production and Use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain Region

Cited by 11 publications

References 20 publications

Modeling Emissions and Ozone Air Quality Impacts of Future Scenarios for Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain States

Modeling Emissions and Ozone Air Quality Impacts of Future Scenarios for Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain States

Incorporating upstream emissions into electric sector nitrogen oxide reduction targets

A review of the public health impacts of unconventional natural gas development

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