Emission scenarios of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom

Abstract

The shale gas debate has taken center stage over the past decade in many European countries due to its purported climate advantages over coal and the implications for domestic energy security. Nevertheless, shale gas production generates greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions including carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds. In this study we develop three shale gas drilling projections in Germany and the United Kingdom based on estimated reservoir productivities and local capacity. For each projection, we define a set of emission scenarios in which gas losses are assigned to each stage of upstream gas production to quantify total emissions. The “realistic” (REm) and “optimistic” (OEm) scenarios investigated in this study describe, respectively, the potential emission range generated by business-as-usual activities, and the lowest emissions technically possible according to our settings. The latter scenario is based on the application of specific technologies and full compliance with a stringent regulatory framework described herein. Based on the median drilling projection, total annual methane emissions range between 150–294 Kt in REm and 28–42 Kt in OEm, while carbon dioxide emissions span from 5.55–7.21 Mt in REm to 3.11–3.96 Mt in OEm. Taking all drilling projections into consideration, methane leakage rates in REm range between 0.45 and 1.36% in Germany, and between 0.35 and 0.71% in the United Kingdom. The leakage rates are discussed in both the European (conventional gas) and international (shale gas) contexts. Further, the emission intensity of a potential European shale gas industry is estimated and compared to national inventories. Results from our science-based prospective scenarios can facilitate an informed discussion among the public and policy makers on the climate impact of a potential shale gas development in Europe, and on the appropriate role of natural gas in the worldwide energy transition.

Modeling the impact of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom on ozone with WRF-Chem

“…To this end, air quality modeling can be used to run scenarios and study how varying levels of precursor emissions from a future shale gas sector may impact regional European O 3 pollution. This paper is a companion paper to Cremonese et al (2019), who developed scenarios on a future shale gas industry in these two countries to quantify the potential impacts on greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions. The present study builds on Cremonese et al (2019) by using their scenario work as the basis for emissions input to the WRF-Chem model to investigate the range of potential impacts from shale gas on local and regional O 3 , with a major focus on O 3 health-related metrics MDA8 and SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb, daily maximum 8-hour).…”

“…This paper is a companion paper to Cremonese et al (2019), who developed scenarios on a future shale gas industry in these two countries to quantify the potential impacts on greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions. The present study builds on Cremonese et al (2019) by using their scenario work as the basis for emissions input to the WRF-Chem model to investigate the range of potential impacts from shale gas on local and regional O 3 , with a major focus on O 3 health-related metrics MDA8 and SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb, daily maximum 8-hour). In addition to the CH 4 leakage rate of Cremonese et al (2019), we also investigate higher CH 4 leakage rates from other studies up to 6%.…”

“…The present study builds on Cremonese et al (2019) by using their scenario work as the basis for emissions input to the WRF-Chem model to investigate the range of potential impacts from shale gas on local and regional O 3 , with a major focus on O 3 health-related metrics MDA8 and SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb, daily maximum 8-hour). In addition to the CH 4 leakage rate of Cremonese et al (2019), we also investigate higher CH 4 leakage rates from other studies up to 6%. Due to our interest in the European region, we base our WRF-Chem setup on Mar et al (2016), whose evaluated setup over Europe performed well for both meteorology and chemistry.…”

“…Anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO x , SO 2 , VOCs, and NH 3 used in WRF-Chem were obtained from the TNO MACC III inventory provided at a resolution of 7 km × 7 km, for the year 2011 (Kuenen et al, 2014). In addition to the aforementioned anthropogenic emissions, shale gas emissions based on Cremonese et al (2019) were included in our simulations (described in Scenario background).…”

“…Specifically, they explore inter alia how different practices, uncertainty in data -i.e., activity data and emission factors, as well as the extent of well productivity, may impact emissions released annually from such an industry in Europe. The scope of Cremonese et al (2019)'s scenarios covers upstream emissions, i.e., from well pad preparation up to gas processing, from shale gas development in Germany and the UK. Cremonese et al (2019) assume in their scenarios that annual shale gas production will be equivalent to recent conventional production in these two countries (Germany: 11.6 bcm; UK: 36.6 bcm).…”