Emigrants and the onset of civil war

Abstract

We propose that emigrants affect the likelihood of civil war onset in their state of origin by influencing the willingness of individuals to join rebel movements and the probability that the state and rebels will be unable to reach a mutually acceptable bargain to avoid conflict in three ways. First, migrants communicating with actors at home facilitate valid comparisons between the effects of policies in the home state as compared to policies in the host state enacted on a similar group, creating new motivation to join collective challenges against the state. Second, migrants send remittances, providing resources that can be used in collective challenges that are particularly difficult for states to anticipate, making the outbreak of conflict more likely. Finally, migrants publicize information about conditions in their home state while living in the host state, reducing home government uncertainty such that conflict is less likely to occur. We test these hypotheses on an international dataset and find support for each of our predicted mechanisms.

Migrant Remittances and Rights to Physical Integrity: A Cross-section Study of Latin America (1981-2014)

“…The literature has analyzed the Haitian case as an example of the interplay between out-migration and remittances, on the one hand, and the onset of civil war, on the other hand (MILLER and RITTER, 2014). One of the mechanisms that might have helped bring about political violence is the diaspora's influence on domestic perceptions of human rights.…”

“…Diaspora members give groups in their home countries higher levels of protection within migrant-receiving countries; the diaspora influences incentives to protest and become more active in politics, at times via elections. As a result, Miller and Ritter (2014) argue that domestic groups within migrant-sending countries face greater costs for free-riding, which leads to higher levels of political engagement and protest (MILLER and RITTER, 2014, p. 52). This causal mechanism, which the authors support by using Haiti and Jamaica as analytical platforms, helps explain the association between remittances and rights violations that we observe in our study.…”

Remittances and Democratization

“…In more institutionalized polities, remittances finance legal opposition parties and thus increase their capacity to challenge the incumbents in elections . Others find that emigrant remittances increase the resources available for collective challenges to the state, increasing the risk of civil war (Miller and Ritter ).…”

International Migration and Military Intervention in Civil War

“…influence on cross-border investment (Leblang, 2010) and the likelihood of (civil) conflict in their target state (see, e.g., Regan, 1998;Salehyan and Gleditsch, 2006;Gleditsch, 2007;Kathman, 2011) or country of origin (Miller and Hencken-Ritter, 2014). Evidently, migrant communities are potentially powerful actors in international politics.…”