Emerging Market Crises and the IMF: Rethinking the Role of the IMF in Light of Turkey's 2000–2001 Financial Crisis

Alper, C. Emre; Economics, in; Alper, Ziya Önis

doi:10.1080/02255189.2003.9668916

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Previous research has also analyzed determinants of the Turkish lira against the US dollar and currency crises in Turkey (Bilgin et al, 2019; Karabulut et al, 2010; Kassouri & Altintaş, 2020; Kyriazis & Economou, 2022; Sabri et al, 2022; Saraç & Karagöz, 2016; Tamgac, 2011). The proposed determinants of the currency crisis in 2000 include political instability, disagreement with the International Monetary Fund, fragility in the banking system, and macroeconomic as well as geopolitical uncertainty (Alper & Alper, 2003; Akyürek, 2006; Bilgin et al, 2019; Çeşmeci & Önder, 2008; Kyriazis & Economou, 2022; Mariano et al, 2004). A notable fact is that the Turkish banking system highly relies on debt denominated in US dollar which increases the fragility to exchange rate movements (Alper & Alper, 2003; Akyürek, 2006).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The proposed determinants of the currency crisis in 2000 include political instability, disagreement with the International Monetary Fund, fragility in the banking system, and macroeconomic as well as geopolitical uncertainty (Alper & Alper, 2003; Akyürek, 2006; Bilgin et al, 2019; Çeşmeci & Önder, 2008; Kyriazis & Economou, 2022; Mariano et al, 2004). A notable fact is that the Turkish banking system highly relies on debt denominated in US dollar which increases the fragility to exchange rate movements (Alper & Alper, 2003; Akyürek, 2006). The most recent crisis period has attracted less explicit attention so far, but the failing commitment of the central bank to fight inflation via higher interest rates provides an obvious explanation for the strong depreciation.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mariano et al, 2004). A notable fact is that the Turkish banking system highly relies on debt denominated in US dollar which increases the fragility to exchange rate movements (Alper & Alper, 2003;Akyürek, 2006). The most recent crisis period has attracted less explicit attention so far, but the failing commitment of the central bank to fight inflation via higher interest rates provides an obvious explanation for the strong depreciation.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

Beckmann

Czudaj

2023

Journal of Forecasting

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This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding GDP growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

Beckmann

Czudaj

2023

Journal of Forecasting

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“…As a result of the politicization of bank lending, the populist economic cycles, the democratic deficit, and the unaccountable and non-transparent nature of public administration, problems in fiscal policy were amplified, and the Turkish economy experienced the persistence of high public debt, high inflation, and interest rates during the 1990s (Alper & Öniş, 2003;Bakır & Öniş, 2010). This resulted in severe economic and financial crises in the 1990s and early 2000s.…”

Section: The Role Of Structural Institutional and Agential-level Enabling Conditions On 2001 Cbrt Legal Reformmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging international political economy and public policy and administration research on central banking

Yağcı

Bakır

2021

Policy and Society

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Central banking as an avenue of research has been of interest to scholars from International Political Economy (IPE) and Public Policy and Administration (PPA) disciplines. Nevertheless, there is very little dialogue between these two perspectives to bridge macro, meso, micro-level analyses and examine the reciprocal relationship between the global and domestic political economy context and monetary policy conduct. This article investigates the Turkish experience to bridge IPE and PPA scholarship on central banking in emerging economies. In doing so, we adopt an analytic eclectic approach combining multiple structural, institutional, and agential causal explanations with particular reference to the Structure, Institution, and Agency (SIA) theoretical framework. This is because analytic eclecticism complements, speaks to, and selectively incorporates theoretical approaches such as the New Independence Approach (NIA) of IPE and institutional and ideational PPA approaches. Drawing on the empirical context of the historical evolution of the Turkish political economy, we explore domestic and international interactions among micro, meso, and macro levels that shape central banking behavior. Our analysis also reveals how global dynamics are translated into domestic policy choices and how particular ideas influence the policymaking process. The analysis underscores the constraining and enabling influence of international dynamics, politics of ideas on emerging economy central banking, and the essential role individual and organizational agency play in the policymaking process.

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“…[25][26][27] Although they were two separate institutions, both the Ministry of Finance and Undersecretariat of Treasury were concurrently tasked by the Turkish government and the International Monetary Fund to implement plans to address the government deficit, which was driven largely by high social sector spending. 26,[28][29][30]…”

Section: Veto Point #1: Ministry Of Finance and Undersecretariat Of Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political Strategies for Health Reform in Turkey: Extending Veto Point Theory

Sparkes

Bump

Reich

2015

Health Systems & Reform

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This qualitative case study uses primary interview data to investigate the political processes of how Turkey established a unified and universal health coverage system. The goal of providing health coverage to all citizens through a unified system has been adopted by many low-and middle-income countries, but few have achieved it; Turkey is a notable exception. We use institutional veto point theory to identify four institutional obstacles to a unified and universal coverage system in Turkey between 2003 and 2008: (1) the Ministry of Finance and Treasury, (2) the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, (3) the Office of the President, and (4) the Constitutional Court. Our analysis shows how Minister of Health Recep Akda g and his team of advisors used political strategies to address and overcome opposition at each veto point. Where possible they avoided institutional veto points by using ministerial authority to adopt policies. When adoption required approval of others with veto power, they delayed putting forward legislation while working to facilitate institutional change to remove opposition; persuaded or made strategic compromises to gain support; or overpowered opposition by calling on the prime minister to intervene. Our findings propose an extension to institutional veto point theory by showing how the exercise of political strategies can overcome opposition at institutional veto points to facilitate policy adoption.

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Emerging Market Crises and the IMF: Rethinking the Role of the IMF in Light of Turkey's 2000–2001 Financial Crisis

Cited by 13 publications

References 16 publications

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira

Bridging international political economy and public policy and administration research on central banking

Political Strategies for Health Reform in Turkey: Extending Veto Point Theory

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