Emerging Infections: Pandemic Influenza

Wp, Glezen

doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.epirev.a017917

Cited by 409 publications

(321 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The model was validated by comparing its predictions to outcomes seen in the ongoing A(H1N1) pandemic (see electronic supplementary material, figure S15) and by comparing the attack rates by age with those observed during the 1918-1919 Spanish influenza in the Unites States (Glezen 1996) (see electronic supplementary material, figure S16). …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza

2009

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Little is known on how different levels of population heterogeneity and different patterns of human mobility affect the course of pandemic influenza in terms of timing and impact. By employing a large-scale spatially explicit individual-based model, founded on a highly detailed model of the European populations and on a careful analysis of air and railway transportation data, we provide quantitative measures of the influence of such factors at the European scale. Our results show that Europe has to be prepared to face a rapid diffusion of a pandemic influenza, because of the high mobility of the population, resulting in the early importation of the first cases from abroad and highly synchronized local epidemics. The impact of the epidemic in European countries is highly variable because of the marked differences in the sociodemographic structure of European populations. R 0 , cumulative attack rate and peak daily attack rate depend heavily on sociodemographic parameters, such as the size of household groups and the fraction of workers and students in the population.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza

2009

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“…Other studies have similarly estimated baseline mortality from weekly or monthly deaths, exclusive of epidemic periods, by using least-squares regression with sinusoidal terms. Although alternatives have been developed (24)(25)(26) and variations on this model have continued to be widely used (27)(28)(29)(30), excess mortality remains an insensitive measure of severity, particularly in pediatric populations (1). We used the same monthly baseline equation with annual and 6-month-cycle terms for total P&I and for total and age-specific all-cause mortality analyses:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City

Olson

Simonsen

Edelson

et al. 2005

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

231

278

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The 1918 ''Spanish flu'' was the fastest spreading and most deadly influenza pandemic in recorded history. Hypotheses of its origin have been based on a limited collection of case and outbreak reports from before its recognized European emergence in the summer of 1918. These anecdotal accounts, however, remain insufficient for determining the early diffusion and impact of the pandemic virus. Using routinely collected monthly age-stratified mortality data, we show that an unmistakable shift in the age distribution of epidemic deaths occurred during the 1917͞1918 influenza season in New York City. The timing, magnitude, and age distribution of this mortality shift provide strong evidence that an early wave of the pandemic virus was present in New York City during February-April 1918.age-specific mortality ͉ epidemic ͉ herald wave ͉ Spanish flu

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“…Even though schoolchildren and young adults have not been considered at high risk for complications or death from influenza, annual morbidity is high; illness attack rates in schoolchildren is higher than that of adults. 8 Analysis of influenza activity during the 1918 and 1957 pandemics showed that influenza virus activity increased at the start of the school year and peaked once schools had been in session for ∼2 months. In addition, during the course of an influenza epidemic, the distribution of patients positive for influenza by culture shifted from school-age children to children aged ,5 years plus adults, further explaining why schoolchildren are generally considered to be the most important source of communitywide transmission of influenza.…”

Section: Justification For Immunizing Schoolchildren Annually Againstmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, during the course of an influenza epidemic, the distribution of patients positive for influenza by culture shifted from school-age children to children aged ,5 years plus adults, further explaining why schoolchildren are generally considered to be the most important source of communitywide transmission of influenza. 8 Because the immune systems of children respond better to influenza vaccination than adults, vaccination of schoolchildren could have important indirect effects in reducing morbidity and mortality in older adults. 9 Ecologic evidence for this was shown by a mandatory influenza vaccination program for schoolchildren in Japan during the mid-1970s through the 1980s that reached a vaccination coverage rate of 50% to 85% and was associated with a reduction in influenza disease among older adults and a population-wide reduction in all-cause mortality of 37 000 to 49 000 deaths per year.…”

Section: Justification For Immunizing Schoolchildren Annually Againstmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Theoretic Framework to Consider the Effect of Immunizing Schoolchildren Against Influenza: Implications for Research

Longini

2012

Pediatrics

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The illness attack rate and annual morbidity caused by infection with influenza is high in schoolchildren. Because schoolchildren are 1 of the most important sources of community-wide transmission of influenza, vaccinating them could have a major effect on reducing morbidity and mortality in older adults. Stochastic modeling shows that a vaccination rate as low as 20% in schoolchildren reduces overall mortality in adults aged $64 years more effectively than a vaccination rate of 90% for older adults. Additional modeling shows that vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza is optimal for reducing morbidity and mortality caused by influenza in the overall population. Although supported by simulated models, the benefits of mass vaccination need to be confirmed in a realworld setting. The best way to demonstrate the effectiveness of mass vaccination of schoolchildren is to implement the process in several localities in several states by using properly designed studies that incorporate accurate viral surveillance with at least 10 pairs of intervention and comparison populations.

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Emerging Infections: Pandemic Influenza

Cited by 409 publications

References 65 publications

The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza

The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza

Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City

A Theoretic Framework to Consider the Effect of Immunizing Schoolchildren Against Influenza: Implications for Research

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