Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources – combating or containing?

Eisinger, Dirk; Thulke, Hans‐Hermann; Selhorst, Thomas; Müller, Thomas

doi:10.1186/1471-2334-5-10

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(100 reference statements)

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“…For example, for a spring density of three foxes, the average dispersal distance resulting from the algorithm corresponds to about 14·4 km (median 11·5 km). In comparison with the literature (Jensen 1973), the reported pattern of cumulative distance distribution re‐emerged from the model algorithm (Eisinger et al . 2005).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 67%

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Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

Eisinger

Thulke

2008

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Summary 1.Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. 2. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. 3. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. 4. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. 5. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen-host system.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…Additionally, the model was applied successfully to different aspects of large‐scale vaccination programmes and post‐vaccination emergency planning (Thulke et al . 2000; Eisinger et al . 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

Eisinger

Thulke

2008

Journal of Applied Ecology

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“…In some cases, spatial disease models have demonstrated that strategic application can be just as effective as uniform application of control measures (e.g., Haydon et al., ; Shaman, ). For example, non‐uniform application of oral rabies vaccine has been explored by several spatial models and found to be a potentially effective way to reduce the 70% threshold standard that is commonly used for vaccination programs (Bohrer, Shem‐Tov, Summer, Or, & Saltz, ; Eisinger, Thulke, Selhorst, & Müller, ; Russell, Real, & Smith, ; Thulke & Eisinger, ). These are important insights because targeted control measures could increase the benefit–cost ratio of management strategies (Eisinger & Thulke, ).…”

Section: Questions That Spatial Models Have Been Used To Answermentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

White

Forester

Craft

2017

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

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“…Certainly, culling of TM would probably never be recommended to enhance rabies management, but the culling of reservoir hosts that share or link with habitats of TM may afford greater effectiveness and the timely establishment of non-infectious animals near TM (Eisinger et al, 2005). Recent rabies-transmission models and empirical data indicate that some culling or contraception of reservoir host animals should be considered in management strategies to enhance the effectiveness of ORV or contraception methods, and possibly to protect ''enclaves'' of TM from the virus carried by non-TM Smith and Cheeseman, 2002).…”

Section: General Implications To Rabies Management For Tmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling wildlife rabies: Transmission, economics, and conservation

Sterner

Smith²

2006

Biological Conservation

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Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease of mammals; it exacerbates the uncertainty of conserving populations of some threatened mammals (TM). Modelling affords an inexpensive, a priori way of studying key parameters of wildlife rabies transmission, rabies management economics, and TM conservation. Numerous models of rabies transmission have been published. Linear density dependent models predicted that a threshold density (K T 6 1.0), possibly attained by culling or contraception, would eliminate an epizootic through reduced contacts among host animals. Density independent models predicted less advantage of culling and contraception in rabies control due to limited contacts among territorial host animals. Recent stochastic, mixed models offer novel predictions about the role of culling, fertility control, and oral rabies vaccination (ORV) in disease management. Use of a ''threshold successful contact'' rate (C T ) as a parameter in these models predicts that density reduction of host animals will enhance ORV campaigns in non-TM contexts via more efficient bait delivery and vaccination. Economic analyses of medical, public health, and veterinary costs have shown post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and increased pet vaccinations (PV) to be major rabies-caused expenses during and after epizootics in North America.No modelling efforts have examined either the benefits-costs of rabies management strategies to conserve TM or the use of ORV, per se, to conserve TM -an omission due in part to the lack of methodologies for properly valuing TM (potential savings) and the expense or lower priority of using ORV for TM protection. This paper: (1) describes key aspects of rabies-transmission models in wildlife, (2) posits the use of C T to predict disease persistence, (3) reviews selected ORV strategies, economic studies, and benefit-cost models associated with the use of ORV as a means of rabies control in non-TM situations, (4) discusses implications of these models to the conservation of TM, and (5) recommends five steps to improve modelling of rabies transmission (wildlife disease in general), rabies-control economics, and TM conservation.

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Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources – combating or containing?

Cited by 19 publications

References 64 publications

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Modelling wildlife rabies: Transmission, economics, and conservation

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