Emergency Management Decision Making during Severe Weather

Baumgart, Leigh A.; Bass, Ellen J.; Philips, Brenda; Kloesel, Kevin A.

doi:10.1175/2008waf2007092.1

Cited by 52 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…4, but for the tornado duration (min) following real-time confirmation through NWS products, distributed by total tornado pathlength (km). Baumgart et al 2008). Generally, a forecast containing an increased risk of tornadoes traditionally motivates members of the IWT to use a more aggressive approach in preparation.…”

Section: Spc Outlooks and Watchesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, local media may dispatch a fleet of television storm chasers and journalists into the field. Emergency managers may alert local law enforcement and deploy local storm spotters in strategic viewing locations across the community (Baumgart et al 2008). Local and national experienced storm chasers may flock to the highest risk area.…”

Section: Spc Outlooks and Watchesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products

Blair

Leighton

2014

Weather and Forecasting

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Real-time confirmation of a tornado specified in National Weather Service (NWS) warnings and statements is believed to increase the credibility and urgency of these critical warning messages for the end user, because it represents the greatest degree of certainty that the hazard exists. This timely tornado information disseminated in official NWS products and relayed through multiple sources by private and public partners may help the public believe, personalize, confirm, and respond to the warning message. This is the first study to explicitly assess the frequency of real-time confirmation of ongoing tornadoes within NWS products and explore what unique conditions may facilitate or hinder this process. Tornado reports and their respective NWS warnings and statements during a 5-yr period from 2007 to 2011 across the central contiguous United States were compiled and examined. Overall, 40% of tornadoes were confirmed in NWS products in real time. Increasing tornado pathlength, duration, and intensity subsequently resulted in an increasing likelihood of real-time confirmation prior to the tornado dissipating. The time of day was a factor; nighttime tornadoes were 20% less likely to receive real-time confirmation than daytime events. Additionally, increasing tornado forecast risk in products issued by the Storm Prediction Center corresponded to an increasing likelihood of real-time confirmation. Analysis of these data reveals specific scenarios when tornadoes are more or less likely to be reported in real time, providing some guidance for when timely ground-truth information may or may not be available.

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Section: Spc Outlooks and Watchesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Spc Outlooks and Watchesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products

Blair

Leighton

2014

Weather and Forecasting

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“…So the issuance of warnings requires a very fine balance of decision-making that takes into account lead time, climatology, societal risk behaviour, social-economic infrastructure, warning service capacity and many other regional, political and societal factors (Baumgart et al, 2008;Dunn, 1990;Hammer and Schmidlin, 2002;Mercer et al, 2009;Schmeits et al, 2008;Westefeld et al, 2006;Wilson et al, 2004). Nowcasts in general are user dependent (Baumgart et al, 2008).…”

Section: Thunderstormmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nowcasts in general are user dependent (Baumgart et al, 2008). Warnings are an extreme kind of nowcasts in which the thresholds apply to a very broad range of users (the public).…”

Section: Thunderstormmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automated Processing of Doppler Radar Data for Severe Weather Warnings

Joe¹,

Dance²,

Lakshmanan³

et al. 2012

Doppler Radar Observations - Weather Radar, Wind Profiler, Ionospheric Radar, and Other Advanced Applications

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“…Automated systems are increasingly being designed to assist humans in making judgments in domains such as defense [19], weather [20], aviation [21], and health care [17], [22], [23]. In the domain of health care, for example, such systems are expected to proliferate given the Institute of Medicine's promotion of health information technology [24] and the push for widespread adoption of information technology through the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act (HITECH) [25].…”

Section: Framework For Automation Design and Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual framework to guide the design and evaluation of human interaction with information automation to support judgment

Baumgart

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In critical domains from air traffic control to health care, humans make judgments by using informational cues to assess the true state of the environment. How humans judge environmental conditions is now ubiquitously supported by automation. While prior modeling and analysis has defined levels of automated decision support and methods to evaluate independent human and automated judges, we have yet to develop ways to both support and evaluate human judgment.To address this gap, this research develops a conceptual design and evaluation framework, titled the Expanded Lens Model with Automation (ELMA). To provide design support, ELMA accounts for discrepancies between how cues in the environment are transformed into operator displays via automated processes. The transformation is based upon the desired, hierarchical level of cognitive judgment support, from cue perception, to cue comprehension, to an automated assessment, to explanation of the automated assessment. In addition to design support, ELMA includes quantitative evaluation measures, using multiple linear regression and correlation analysis to characterize the achievement, consistency, and task knowledge of the human judge; potential and accuracy of automation; and predictability of the environment.ELMA's utility is demonstrated through the investigation of two tasks: 1) judging the probability of an air traffic conflict using heading and speed cues and 2) judging the quality of population-based hypertension care using cues on patient outcomes (e.g., blood pressure) and processes (e.g., medications prescribed). Across both tasks, ELMA revealed that when participants were supported at the cognitive level of cue comprehension they achieved significantly higher judgment achievement compared to those supported at the lower level of cue perception. Decomposition of achievement indicated that these differences were predominantly due to the consistency of individuals in executing judgments rather than task knowledge. Additionally, reliability across participants was significantly iv higher for participants with cue perception and cue comprehension support compared to participants with automated assessment support in the quality of hypertension care task.ELMA is a useful tool for systems engineers as it provides both a systematic framework to inform automation design choices and a quantitative method to evaluate human-automation judgment systems.v

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Emergency Management Decision Making during Severe Weather

Cited by 52 publications

References 12 publications

Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products

Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products

Automated Processing of Doppler Radar Data for Severe Weather Warnings

A conceptual framework to guide the design and evaluation of human interaction with information automation to support judgment

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