Embracing uncertainty: rethinking migration policy through pastoralists’ experiences

Abstract

Today there is a disjuncture between migration flows that are complex, mixed and constantly evolving and the emerging global migration governance paradigm that seeks to impose clarity, certainty, regularity and order. Addressing the gap between policies and realities, this article explores lessons for migration policy and governance from mobile pastoralists’ experience. Using examples from human migration flows within and between Europe and Africa and insights from pastoral systems from India, Italy and Kenya, the article identifies important similarities between international migration and pastoral mobility. We focus on four interconnections: both international migration and pastoral mobility show multi-directional and fragmented patterns; both involve multiple, intersecting socio-economic, political, cultural and environmental drivers; both must respond to non-linear systems, where critical junctures and tipping points undermine clear prediction and forecasts, making social navigation and reliability management more useful concepts than risk-based prediction and control and finally for both uncertainty is not conceived of as a state of crisis but an inherent feature, pregnant with possibility and hope. Building on these four points, and drawing from pastoralists’ experiences, we propose some methodological, practical and policy reflections for bridging the disjuncture between migration realities on the ground and global migration governance policies and discourses.

Parental uncertainty in plans and education of ukrainian refugee children in European countries: a pilot study introduction

“…Uncertainty points to the recognition and awareness that change can happen and things can get better or worse for both the future of individuals and their children [11,12]. Most migrants face high uncertainty: leaving a familiar place generates economic, social, linguistic, and sometimes even physical uncertainty [13]. This is especially true for refugees and forced migration, as it is often a more or less unplanned response to deteriorating circumstances and/or severe threats to human security.…”

Over-reliance on water infrastructure can hinder climate resilience in pastoral drylands

“…While representing a necessary emergency response 27,28 , a substantial increase in water infrastructure and water supply may also enable a change in pastoral drought-coping strategies, with unforeseen consequences on groundwater availability, rangeland ecologies and overall drought-coping capacity. Given the complexity of pastoral livelihoods and the contextual nature of their drought-coping strategies, driven by cultural, socio-economic, political, demographic and environmental factors 14 , understanding the systemic implications of water infrastructure development remains a major barrier for designing resilient development strategies across African drylands.…”

“…Mobility (that is, seasonal movements of pastoralists and their herd 11 ) is the traditional strategy of pastoralists in drylands around the globe to cope with climate variability and water and pasture scarcity 12,13 . Yet it is not to be considered as a mere drought coping mechanism but a whole livelihood strategy that allows pastoralists to navigate uncertainty, change and variability 14 . Depending on drought intensity and sociocultural traditions, herd movements can last a few weeks to years and involve young clan members or entire families.…”

Over-reliance on water infrastructure erodes the resilience of drylands pastoralists

“…Mobility (i.e., seasonal movements of pastoralists and their herd 18 ) is the traditional strategy of pastoralists in drylands around the globe to cope with climate variability and water and pasture scarcity 11,12 . Yet, it is not to be considered as a mere drought coping mechanism but a whole livelihood strategy that allows pastoralists to navigate uncertainty, change and variability 13 . Depending on drought intensity and socio-cultural traditions, herd movements can last a few weeks to years and involve young clan members or entire families.…”

“…The longterm effects of such dynamics led to widespread land degradation, further worsening the impact of the following droughts 30,31 . Given the complexity of pastoral livelihoods and the contextual nature of their drought-coping strategies, driven by cultural, socio-economic, political, and environmental factors 13 , understanding the systemic implications of water infrastructure development remains a major barrier for designing resilient development strategies across African drylands. Drawing from long-term and in-depth anthropological research on the impacts of SWI on pastoralists' responses to exceptional droughts, we model pastoralists' dynamics connected to water infrastructure development.…”