Elite Consensus and Balancing: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective on Pakistan–China Ties

Abstract

Classical realism believes in the primacy of systemic pressures as independent variable and suggests states to choose appropriate balancing policies as dependent variable. However, this complex causal chain requires the role of intervening variables, which the neoclassical realist theory offers. This article employs the neoclassical realist perspective to the unexplored case of Pakistan–China ties from 1972 to 2018 presenting a causal chain that explains elite consensus as the intervening variable between the perceived Indian threat and the preference of Pakistani decision-makers for strong Pakistan–China bond. This article presents the theoretical perspective, perceived Indian threat, the balancing options available to Pakistan and elite typology. We conclude by presenting the contribution of elite consensus in Pakistan’s choice for forging closer ties with China as an appropriate balancing strategy against the perceived Indian threat specifically and external threats in general.