Eleven‐year solar cycle signal throughout the lower atmosphere

Coughlin, K.; Tung, K. K.

doi:10.1029/2004jd004873

Cited by 80 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…In this introductory section we briefly summarize results from other authors that found correlation between solar activity and physical parameters of the troposphere, notably the ground temperatures. Coughlin and Tung (2004) found an 11-year sun-correlated signal in the lower troposphere. Usoskin et al (2004bUsoskin et al ( , 2004c studied the correlation between solar activity and surface temperature over the last 1150 years and found a correlation coefficient of 0.7-0.8 with a significance level ranging between 94% and 98%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Jager

Duhau

Geel

2010

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues.Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. b s t r a c tThis investigation is a follow-up of a paper in which we showed that both major magnetic components of the solar dynamo, viz. the toroidal and the poloidal ones, are correlated with average terrestrial surface temperatures. Here, we quantify, improve and specify that result and search for their causes. We studied seven recent temperature files. They were smoothed in order to eliminate the Schwabe-type (11 years) variations. While the total temperature gradient over the period of investigation (1610-1970) is 0.087 1C/century; a gradient of 0.077 1C/century is correlated with the equatorial (toroidal) magnetic field component. Half of it is explained by the increase of the Total Solar Irradiance over the period of investigation, while the other half is due to feedback by evaporated water vapour. A yet unexplained gradient of À 0.040 1C/century is correlated with the polar (poloidal) magnetic field. The residual temperature increase over that period, not correlated with solar variability, is 0.051 1C/century. It is ascribed to climatologic forcings and internal modes of variation.We used these results to study present terrestrial surface warming. By subtracting the above-mentioned components from the observed temperatures we found a residual excess of 0.311 in 1999, this being the triangularly weighted residual over the period 1990-2008. We show that solar forcing of the ground temperature associated with significant feedback is a regularly occurring feature, by describing some well observed events during the Holocene.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Jager

Duhau

Geel

2010

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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“…This section considers the multidecadal trends (e.g., Brönnimann et al 2007) rather than the great many reports of putative solar-cycle variations observed in the troposphere (e.g., Camp and Tung 2007;Coughlin 2004;Gleisner et al 2005). One reason why the global climate response timescales have recently become a consideration is the realisation that, since 1985, all the relevant solar outputs have been changing in the opposite direction to those needed to explain the rise in GMAST (Lockwood and Fröhlich 2007).…”

Section: Global Climate Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates

Lockwood

2012

Surv Geophys

149

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The literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast-but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. The common pitfalls are outlined in this review. The best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). However, the situation is more interesting when one looks at regional and season variations around the global means. In particular, recent research indicates that winters in Eurasia may have some dependence on the Sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low. Advances in modelling ''top-down'' mechanisms, whereby stratospheric changes influence the underlying troposphere, offer promising explanations of the observed phenomena. In contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations.

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“…Soukharev and Hood, 2006;Frame and Gray, 2010;Gray et al, 2013;Mitchell et al, 2014) used multiple linear regression to extract the solar signal and separate other climate phenomena like the QBO, the effect of aerosols, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or trend variability. Apart from this conventional method, it is possible to use alternative approaches to isolate and examine particular signal components, such as wavelet analysis (Pisoft et al, 2012(Pisoft et al, , 2013 or empirical mode decomposition (Coughlin and Tung, 2004). The nonlinear character of the climate system also suggests potential benefits from the application of fully nonlinear attribution techniques to study the properties…”

Section: A Kuchar Et Al: Solar Cycle In Current Reanalysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neural networks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how these types of data resolve especially the doublepeaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere were found to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies, although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especially for JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone data sets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. The results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussed in terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker BrewerDobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewed together with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour.

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Eleven‐year solar cycle signal throughout the lower atmosphere

Cited by 80 publications

References 37 publications

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates

The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

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