“…As a consequence, decline in river flows was reported for different sub-basins in the UIB. Similarly, the results of EDTs for temperature indices and precipitation, obtained in this study, concur well with the findings of [75] who reported a similar increasing trend in T max and DTR, as well as a decrease in T min and precipitation trends, with a moderate positive slope in T mean from lower to higher gradient across the longitudinal extension of Nepal. However, for the region of Punjab, most stations are located at less elevation, yet the results obtained from the EDT analysis are highly significant, particularly for the futuristic studies related to the elevation-dependence warming over the region under study.…”
Section: Annual and Seasonal Elevation-dependent Trends (Edts)supporting
confidence: 92%
“…The trend in T max is highly sensitive with respect to the elevation and can be easily detected by spatial distribution of trends. The current findings of T max trends are in consistence with the results of [75], wherein higher trends in temperature in Nepal at elevations above 1000 m a.s.l. were reported and were said to be homogenous for all seasons.…”
Section: Annual and Seasonal Elevation-dependent Trends (Edts)supporting
confidence: 89%
“…The outcomes of this study regarding the increase in amounts of precipitation for lower-elevation regions are consistent with the findings of [80,81], wherein the increase in precipitation amounts and its impact on the increase in T min trends were discussed. The results of the higher decreasing trend of precipitation at annual and seasonal scale at higher elevation, and particularly results of Murree station (above 2000 m a.s.l), are associated with findings of [75,82], which reported a decreasing trend in annual precipitation from lower to higher elevation. The possible explanation of decreasing precipitation at higher elevation could be linked with the decrease in cloud cover and soil moisture and, ultimately, increase in day time and decrease in nighttime temperatures (T max and T min ) [83,84].…”
Section: Annual and Seasonal Elevation-dependent Trends (Edts)supporting
Identifying the changes in precipitation and temperature at a regional scale is of great importance for the quantification of climate change. This research investigates the changes in precipitation and surface air temperature indices in the seven irrigation zones of Punjab Province during the last 50 years; this province is a very important region in Pakistan in terms of agriculture and irrigated farming. The reliability of the data was examined using double mass curve and autocorrelation analysis. The magnitude and significance of the precipitation and temperature were visualized by various statistical methods. The stations’ trends were spatially distributed to better understand climatic variability across the elevation gradient of the study region. The results showed a significant warming trend in annual Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tmean (mean temperature) in different irrigation zones. However, Tmax (maximum temperature) had insignificant variations except in the high elevation Thal zone. Moreover, the rate of Tmin increased faster than that of Tmax, resulting in a reduction in the diurnal temperature range (DTR). On a seasonal scale, warming was more pronounced during spring, followed by that in winter and autumn. However, the summer season exhibited insignificant negative trends in most of the zones and gauges, except in the higher-altitude Thal zone. Overall, Bahawalpur and Faisalabad are the zones most vulnerable to warming annually and in the spring, respectively. Furthermore, the elevation-dependent trend (EDT) indicated larger increments in Tmax for higher-elevation (above 500 m a.s.l.) stations, compared to the lower-elevation ones, on both annual and seasonal scales. In contrast, the Tmin showed opposite trends at higher- and lower-elevation stations, while a moderate increase was witnessed in Tmean trends from lower to higher altitude over the study region. An increasing trend in DTR was observed at higher elevation, while a decreasing trend was noticed at the lower-elevation stations. The analysis of precipitation data indicated wide variability over the entire region during the study period. Most previous studies reported no change or a decreasing trend in precipitation in this region. Conversely, our findings indicated the cumulative increase in annual and autumn precipitation amounts at zonal and regional level. However, EDT analysis identified the decrease in precipitation amounts at higher elevation (above 1000 m a.s.l.) and increase at the lower-elevation stations. Overall, our findings revealed unprecedented evidence of regional climate change from the perspectives of seasonal warming and variations in precipitation and temperature extremes (Tmax and Tmin) particularly at higher-elevation sites, resulting in a variability of the DTR, which could have a significant influence on water resources and on the phenology of vegetation and crops at zonal and station level in Punjab.
“…As a consequence, decline in river flows was reported for different sub-basins in the UIB. Similarly, the results of EDTs for temperature indices and precipitation, obtained in this study, concur well with the findings of [75] who reported a similar increasing trend in T max and DTR, as well as a decrease in T min and precipitation trends, with a moderate positive slope in T mean from lower to higher gradient across the longitudinal extension of Nepal. However, for the region of Punjab, most stations are located at less elevation, yet the results obtained from the EDT analysis are highly significant, particularly for the futuristic studies related to the elevation-dependence warming over the region under study.…”
Section: Annual and Seasonal Elevation-dependent Trends (Edts)supporting
confidence: 92%
“…The trend in T max is highly sensitive with respect to the elevation and can be easily detected by spatial distribution of trends. The current findings of T max trends are in consistence with the results of [75], wherein higher trends in temperature in Nepal at elevations above 1000 m a.s.l. were reported and were said to be homogenous for all seasons.…”
Section: Annual and Seasonal Elevation-dependent Trends (Edts)supporting
confidence: 89%
“…The outcomes of this study regarding the increase in amounts of precipitation for lower-elevation regions are consistent with the findings of [80,81], wherein the increase in precipitation amounts and its impact on the increase in T min trends were discussed. The results of the higher decreasing trend of precipitation at annual and seasonal scale at higher elevation, and particularly results of Murree station (above 2000 m a.s.l), are associated with findings of [75,82], which reported a decreasing trend in annual precipitation from lower to higher elevation. The possible explanation of decreasing precipitation at higher elevation could be linked with the decrease in cloud cover and soil moisture and, ultimately, increase in day time and decrease in nighttime temperatures (T max and T min ) [83,84].…”
Section: Annual and Seasonal Elevation-dependent Trends (Edts)supporting
Identifying the changes in precipitation and temperature at a regional scale is of great importance for the quantification of climate change. This research investigates the changes in precipitation and surface air temperature indices in the seven irrigation zones of Punjab Province during the last 50 years; this province is a very important region in Pakistan in terms of agriculture and irrigated farming. The reliability of the data was examined using double mass curve and autocorrelation analysis. The magnitude and significance of the precipitation and temperature were visualized by various statistical methods. The stations’ trends were spatially distributed to better understand climatic variability across the elevation gradient of the study region. The results showed a significant warming trend in annual Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tmean (mean temperature) in different irrigation zones. However, Tmax (maximum temperature) had insignificant variations except in the high elevation Thal zone. Moreover, the rate of Tmin increased faster than that of Tmax, resulting in a reduction in the diurnal temperature range (DTR). On a seasonal scale, warming was more pronounced during spring, followed by that in winter and autumn. However, the summer season exhibited insignificant negative trends in most of the zones and gauges, except in the higher-altitude Thal zone. Overall, Bahawalpur and Faisalabad are the zones most vulnerable to warming annually and in the spring, respectively. Furthermore, the elevation-dependent trend (EDT) indicated larger increments in Tmax for higher-elevation (above 500 m a.s.l.) stations, compared to the lower-elevation ones, on both annual and seasonal scales. In contrast, the Tmin showed opposite trends at higher- and lower-elevation stations, while a moderate increase was witnessed in Tmean trends from lower to higher altitude over the study region. An increasing trend in DTR was observed at higher elevation, while a decreasing trend was noticed at the lower-elevation stations. The analysis of precipitation data indicated wide variability over the entire region during the study period. Most previous studies reported no change or a decreasing trend in precipitation in this region. Conversely, our findings indicated the cumulative increase in annual and autumn precipitation amounts at zonal and regional level. However, EDT analysis identified the decrease in precipitation amounts at higher elevation (above 1000 m a.s.l.) and increase at the lower-elevation stations. Overall, our findings revealed unprecedented evidence of regional climate change from the perspectives of seasonal warming and variations in precipitation and temperature extremes (Tmax and Tmin) particularly at higher-elevation sites, resulting in a variability of the DTR, which could have a significant influence on water resources and on the phenology of vegetation and crops at zonal and station level in Punjab.
“…10,[52][53][54] The frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (i.e., >95 th percentile) has also increased across portions of South Asia between 1951 and 2010 55 and intensification of various indices of precipitation extremes has recently been observed across Nepal. 53,56 An increase in heavy precipitation coupled with rising freezing-level heights associated with elevation-dependent warming [57][58][59][60] increases the flood threat in high-elevation glacierized basins, because rain is more likely to occur than snow. 17 In fact, the probability of snowfall occurring on glacier fronts (at 4,817 m asl) decreased almost 11% between 1994 and 2013 in the Khumbu region.…”
Highlights d Specific humidity and freezing level height have increased since 1981 d Bulk of precipitation falls during monsoon and at night d Westerly trajectories predominate during post-monsoon, winter, and pre-monsoon d Northern Bay of Bengal is an important moisture source during the monsoon period
“…Snow cover is a critical element of the cryosphere and weather system, and is an indicator of climate change. Across Himalaya of Nepal, there has been considerable warming from the 1970s (Thakuri et al, 2019) with annual changes in the precipitation Hamal et al, 2020a). Therefore, in the context of climate change, the study of spatial and temporal snow cover dynamics in Nepal is essential.…”
Snow is one of the main components of the cryosphere and plays a vital role in the hydrology and regulating climate. This study presents the dynamics of maximum snow cover area (SCA) and snow line altitude (SLA) across the Western, Central, and Eastern Nepal using improved Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 500 m) data from 2003 to 2018. The results showed a heterogeneous behavior of the spatial and temporal variations of SCA in different months, seasons, and elevation zones across three regions of Nepal. Further, the maximum and minimum SCA was observed in winter (December-February) and post-monsoon (October-November) seasons, respectively. The inter-annual variation of winter SCA showed an overall negative trend of SCA between 2003 to 2018 at the national and regional scales. The SLA was assessed in the post-monsoon season. At the national scale, the SLA lies in an elevation zone of 4500-5000 m, and the approximate SLA of Nepal was 4750 m in 2018. Regionally, the SLA lies in an elevation zone of 4500-5000 m in the Western and Central regions (approx. SLA at 4750 m) and 5000-5500 m in the Eastern region (approx. SLA at 5250 m) in 2018. The SLA fluctuated with the changes in SCA, and the spatio-temporal variations of SLAs were observed in three regions of Nepal. We observed an upward shift of SLA by 33.3 m yr-1 in the Western and Central Nepal and by 66.7 m yr-1 in Eastern Nepal. This study will help to understand the impacts of climate change on snow cover, and the information will be useful for the hydrologist and water resource managers.
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