Aims/hypothesis. We examined the association between plasma insulin and cardiovascular mortality in non-diabetic European men and women based on data from eleven prospective studies. Methods. The study population comprised 6156 men and 5351 women aged 30-89 years. Baseline measurements included oral glucose tolerance test, fasting and 2-h plasma insulin, and conventional risk factors. Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals, and overall HRs were assessed by meta-analyses. Results. During the 8.8-year follow-up, 362 men and 70 women died from cardiovascular disease. The ageand smoking-adjusted overall HR of cardiovascular mortality for the highest vs the lower quartiles of fasting insulin was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.26-1.97) in men and 2.64 (1.54-4.51) in women. Adjusting for other risk factors in addition, the HR was 1.54 (1.16-2.03) in men and 2.66 (1.45-4.90) in women. For 2-h insulin these HRs were 1.28 (0.99-1.66), 1.87 (0.87-4.02), and 0.85 (0.60-1.21), 1.36 (0.53-3.45). The overall HRs for interquartile ranges for fasting and 2-h insulin, with full adjustment, were 1.13 (1.05-1.22) and 1.11 (1.01-1.23) in men, and 1.25 (1.08-1.45) and 1.11 (0.91-1.36) in women. Conclusions/interpretation. Hyperinsulinaemia, defined by the highest quartile cut-off for fasting insulin, was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality in both men and women independently of other risk factors. Associations between high 2-h insulin and cardiovascular mortality were weaker and non-significant. Weak positive associations of fasting and 2-h insulin with cardiovascular mortality over interquartile ranges were, however, more similar. Diabetologia (2004) 47:1245-1256 DOI 10.1007/s00125-004-1433 Plasma insulin and cardiovascular mortality in non-diabetic European men and women: a meta-analysis of data from eleven prospective studies
The DECODE Insulin Study Group
IntroductionThe role of hyperinsulinaemia as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) has previously been debated. An association between elevated plasma insulin, fasting or oral glucose load, and the risk of CHD or atherosclerotic CVD has been found in many [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16] but not in all [17,18,19,20,21] prospective studies. Among the studies showing the positive association between plasma insulin and CVD, the effect of adjustment for other risk factors has varied. In several studies the association remained statistically significant, although attenuated [1,2,3,5,6,7,9,10,12,13,15,16] , whereas in other studies it became non-significant [4,8,11,14]. The majority of the published Corresponding author of the DECODE Insulin Study Group: G. Hu, Diabetes and Genetic Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, National Public Health Institute, Mannerheimintie 166, 00300 Helsinki, Finland, Phone: +358-9-19127366, Fax: +358-9-19127313, e-mail: hu.gang@ktl.fi Members of the DECODE Insulin Study Group are listed at the end of the paper studies were carried...