Elementos para a discussão sobre a renovação do contrato de fornecimento de gás natural boliviano para o Brasil no contexto do aumento da produção brasileira de gás.

Abstract

Santos Júnior, Dorival Suriano dos. Elements for the discussion on the agreement renewal for Bolivian natural gas supply to Brazil in the context of the increased Brazilian internal gas production. 2019. 143 f. Master's Dissertation-Graduate Program on Energy, University of São Paulo. São Paulo. 2019. Natural gas imported from Bolivia is responsible for 30% of the gas supply to the Brazilian market. The gas supply agreement (GSA), considered one of the largest energy integration projects in the Americas, officially concludes by the end of 2019. Given the expectation of increase in the Brazilian internal production of natural gas, comming from the Pre-salt area, there is uncertainty as to the renewal of this agreement by Brazilian officials. However, the commercial feasibility of the natural gas from Pre-salt area depends on solutions to technical, logistical and environmental challenges, such as the distance between the fields and the Brazilian coast and the difficulty to access consumer markets, whose large-scale expansion is not yet known by the statistics. The geopolitical aspects between Brazil and Bolivia are also significant, since the provision of natural gas to Brazil corresponds to 40% of Bolivia's GDP, therefore the geopolitical relations between the countries would be negatively impacted in a GSA non-renewal scenario. In this complex and interdisciplinary context, the objective of this thesis is to present the energetic, economic, and geopolitical elements that influence the SGA renewal (or not) with Bolivia, considering the Brazil's self-sufficiency gas production expectation and the commercial relationship between the two countries. As a methodology, this thesis presents a literature search design that covers the theme. However, the presented argumentation seeks to bring original reflections and strategic options not found in literature. In a GSA renewal with Bolivia, this thesis assess the existence of the Bolivian natural gas additional market in Mato Grosso state by identifying the potential consumption volume and by obtaining the capital and operational expenditure costs to transport the Bolivian gas to the countryside of the state, replacing diesel, electricity, and fuel oil with liquefied natural gas transported by road and serving the agricultural, industrial and transportation sectors. As a methodology to assess this additional gas demand, a case study qualitative research was used Concluding that the greater use of the Pre-salt gas will depend on solving technical and financial challenges that may delay the monetization of this gas. Therefore, given the importance of the Bolivian gas for trade relations between Bolivia and Brazil, and taking into consideration the price competitiveness of the Bolivian gas compared to the Brazilian domestic gas, it is concluded that Brazil must still rely on Bolivia as a natural gas supplier to the Brazilian market. As to the case study, it is estimated that there is a potential natural gas market of 2.1 MMm3/day at a very competitive cost compared to the ass...