Electricity savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions from global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons

Abstract

Abstract. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are widely used as cooling agents in refrigeration and air conditioning, as solvents in industrial processes, as fire extinguishing agents, for foam blowing and as aerosol propellants. They have been the primary substitutes for ozone-depleting substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol (MP). However, HFCs are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) and as such subject to global phase-down under the Kigali Amendment (KA) to the MP. In this study, we develop a range of long-term scenarios for HFC emissions under varying degrees of stringency in climate policy and assess co-benefits in the form of electricity savings and associated reductions in GHG and air pollutant emissions. Due to technical opportunities to improve energy efficiency in cooling technologies during the phase-down of HFCs, there exist potentials for significant electricity savings under a well-managed phase-down of HFCs. Our results show that annual pre-KA baseline emissions of HFCs are expected to increase from almost 0.5 to about 4.3 Gt CO2eq between 2005 and 2050 and reach between 6.2 and 6.8 Gt CO2eq in 2100. The growth is driven by a strong increase in demand for refrigeration and air conditioning services, which in turn is driven by an expected increase in per capita wealth in developing countries and a warmer future climate. We estimate that full compliance with KA means cumulative global HFC emissions that are 87 % lower than in the pre-KA baseline between 2018 and 2100. Also, the opportunity to simultaneously improve energy efficiency in stationary cooling technologies during such a transition could bring about additional climate benefits of about the same magnitude as that attributed to the phase-down of HFCs. If technical energy efficiency improvements are fully implemented, the resulting electricity savings could exceed a fifth of future global electricity consumption. Together with an HFC phase-down, this means preventing between 390 and 640 Gt CO2 equivalent of GHG emissions between 2018 and 2100, thereby making a significant contribution towards keeping the global temperature rise below 2 °C. Reduced electricity consumption also means lower air pollution emissions in the power sector, estimated at about 10 % for SO2, 16 % for NOx and 9 % for PM2.5 emissions, compared with a pre-KA baseline.

Colossal and reversible barocaloric effect in liquid-solid-transition materials n-alkanes

“…Refrigeration technologies are widely applied in modern society, covering fields including food storage, air conditions, industrial manufacture, medical treatment, etc 1 , 2 . The vast majority of cooling equipment depends on conventional refrigeration technologies, which are based on compression cycles of powerful greenhouse gases, e.g., hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) 1 – 4 . These greenhouse gases have great global warming potentials thousands of times greater than CO 2 and a long atmospheric lifetime of several decades 1 , 3 .…”

“…The vast majority of cooling equipment depends on conventional refrigeration technologies, which are based on compression cycles of powerful greenhouse gases, e.g., hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) 1 – 4 . These greenhouse gases have great global warming potentials thousands of times greater than CO 2 and a long atmospheric lifetime of several decades 1 , 3 . According to the Kigali Amendment, the phase-down of greenhouse gases is mandated 1 , 3 , 4 .…”

“…These greenhouse gases have great global warming potentials thousands of times greater than CO 2 and a long atmospheric lifetime of several decades 1 , 3 . According to the Kigali Amendment, the phase-down of greenhouse gases is mandated 1 , 3 , 4 . Paradoxically, the demand for cooling will continue to increase in the seeable future because of population increase, urbanization, improvement in quality of life, etc.…”

Co-benefits of Energy-Efficient Air Conditioners in the Residential Building Sector of China

“…The implied emission factors are obtained from GAINS model (Purohit et al, 2020) 46 that reflect the expected year-specific fuel mixes used in power plants in the IEA-WEO (2018) Current Policy Scenario (CPS), New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), respectively, in the timeframe to 2050. Among them, the CPS only considers the impact of those policies and measures that are firmly enshrined in legislation as of mid-2018.…”

Achieving Paris climate goals calls for increasing ambition of the Kigali Amendment

“…The 2015 Paris Agreement established an ambitious target of limiting global temperature rise this century to well below 2°C preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, but did so in the context of broader international goals of sustainable development and poverty eradication. A recent IIASA study 7 use the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model 8 framework to develop a range of long-term scenarios for HFC emissions under varying degrees of stringency in climate policy and assess co-bene ts in the form of electricity savings and associated reductions in GHG and air pollutant emissions. Full compliance with the KA (Fig.…”