Electric Vehicle and Photovoltaic Power Scenario Generation under Extreme High-Temperature Weather

Abstract

In recent years, with the intensification of global warming, extreme weather has become more frequent, intensifying the uncertainty of new energy output and load power, and seriously affecting the safe operation of power systems. Scene generation is an effective method to solve the uncertainty problem of stochastic planning of integrated systems of new energy generation. Therefore, this paper proposes a scenario generation and scenario reduction model of photovoltaic (PV) output and electric vehicle (EV) load power under extreme weather based on the copula function. Firstly, the non-parametric kernel density estimation method is used to fit a large number of sample data. The kernel density estimation expressions of PV and EV powers under extreme weather conditions are obtained and the corresponding goodness of fit tests are carried out. Then, a variety of joint distribution models based on the copula function are established to judge the goodness of fit of each model, and the optimal copula function is selected as the joint probability distribution function by combining the Kendall and Spearman correlation coefficients of each model. Finally, the optimal copula joint probability distribution is used to generate PV and EV power scenarios. The data of extremely hot weather in a certain province were selected for an example analysis. The results show that the output scenario obtained conforms to the correlation under this extreme weather, and has higher accuracy in reflecting the actual PV output and load power in this province under this extreme weather, which can provide a reference for reliability analyses of power systems and power grid planning.

Short-Term Charging Load Prediction of Electric Vehicles with Dynamic Traffic Information Based on a Support Vector Machine

“…As EVs become more widely promoted and used globally, they are increasingly being connected to the power grid for charging purposes [2]. This connection has a significant impact on the safe operation of the power grid system and the development of the communication system [3,4]. However, with the large-scale promotion and application of various countries, EVs, as a special mobile load, are connected to the power system in large numbers for charging interaction, which brings a significant impact on the safe operation of the power system and the development of the transportation system [5].…”

Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Energy System Considering Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station and Multiple Uncertainties

“…Accurately predicting natural conditions is extremely challenging, which implies fluctuations in the output of new energy. Moreover, the load within the power system is often complex and variable [16], resulting in the failure of real-time matching between the power output of new energy and the system load in the IES. Scholarly research has extensively addressed the scheduling issues of IES with uncertainty, where robust optimization emerges as an effective method to address this problem [17,18].…”