Electric power system simulation for risk assessment of power transformer failure under external short-circuit conditions

Bardyk, Eugen; Bolotnyi, Nickolai P.

doi:10.1109/ukrcon.2017.8100527

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Для прийняття ефективних рішень щодо стратегії управління режимами ЕЕС в останні десятиріччя в промислово розвинених країнах використовують стратегію ризик-менеджменту [1,2] де в якості характеристики режимної надійності ЕЕС часто використовують показник ризику [1][2][3][4].…”

Section: нечітке моделювання комутаційного обладнання для задач оцінк...unclassified

Fuzzy Modeling of Switching Equipment for Tasks of Assessing the Risk of Emergency Situations in the Eps in Case of Electrical Equipment Failures

Бардик¹,

Бондаренко²

2023

ENERHETYKA: ekonomika, tekhnolohiyi, ekolohiya

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Today in the electric power industry of Ukraine the issue of assessing the risk of EPS operation due to failures of electrical equipment is particularly important. Failures are associated with significant level of aging and low replacement rates of electrical equipment, also with the possible simultaneous emergency decommissioning of several elements as a result of terrorist attacks. Based on the analysis of the operating conditions of high-voltage switching equipment, standards and operational documentation method of diagnosing the technical condition of SF6 circuit breakers is proposed. This method is based on the use of fuzzy set theory. To assess the risk of power outages in the EPS in case of electrical equipment failures, a linguistic model is proposed for determining the total residual life and the probability of failure of SF6 high-voltage circuit breakers of various types. Which is based on the aggregation of information on the technical condition of individual functional units. An approach is proposed to take into account the importance of individual units of the circuit breaker in terms of the impact on the total residual life by weight coefficients determined due to failure statistics. The result of determining the total residual life is the ability to estimate the probability of failure on the observation time interval. Tuning and adaptation of the developed linguistic model of the SF6 circuit breaker to real operating conditions is provided by adjusting the parameters of the membership functions of the terms of the input linguistic variables using weighting coefficients and fuzzy inference with weighted average truth. The developed linguistic mathematical model for assessing the technical condition and probability of failure of SF6 circuit breakers can be used as a component of the complex of risk analysis programs in the EPS. And the formation of preventive actions to ensure the operational reliability of electrical equipment and regime reliability of the EPS in case of emergency equipment failures.

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Section: нечітке моделювання комутаційного обладнання для задач оцінк...unclassified

Fuzzy Modeling of Switching Equipment for Tasks of Assessing the Risk of Emergency Situations in the Eps in Case of Electrical Equipment Failures

Бардик¹,

Бондаренко²

2023

ENERHETYKA: ekonomika, tekhnolohiyi, ekolohiya

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“…Задачею комплексного моделювання в роботі є визначення ризику порушення нормального режиму ЕЕС на заданому інтервалі часу Δt у разі відмов або виведення з експлуатації електрообладнання ЕО внаслідок незадовільного ТС. Для цього реалізується обчислювальний процес з використанням методу статистичного моделювання [17]. Відповідна схема статистичного моделювання режимів підсистеми ЕЕС показана на рис.…”

Section: алгоритм комплексного моделювання режиму еес для оцінки ризику порушення нормального режиму у разі відмов електрообладнанняunclassified

Determination of Disruption Risk of the Normal Regime of the Electric Power System under Planned and Emergency Decommissioning of Electrical Equipment

Bardyk¹,

Bolotnyi²,

Бондаренко³

2021

VVPI

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“…Ресурс СТ, якщо немає дефектів, значною мірою визначається ресурсом паперової ізоляції, зокрема ступенем полімеризації паперу [17]. Ресурс паперової виткової ізоляції обмоток вважається вичерпаним, коли ступінь полімеризації паперу знижується від 1000-1300 од.…”

Section: математична модель ео для оцінювання ризику відмови за наявності дефекту та збурень у зовнішній електричній мережіunclassified

“…У [17] змодельовано й оцінено ризик відмови обмоток СТ за КЗ в електричній мережі та визначено технічний стан обмоток на основі як ступеню полімеризації ізоляції, так і виміряних значень опору КЗ.…”

“…Як вхідні лінгвістичні змінні нечіткої моделі оцінювання ризику відмови СТ за зовнішніх КЗ, відповідно до загальних підходів [14,17], використаємо такі: ΔZkступінь деформації обмоток:…”

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Determination of “Weak” by Power Transformers Reliability of Power Systems According to the Results of Failure Risk Assessment Under External Short Circuits

Bardik¹,

Bolotniy²,

Koval³

2021

KPI SN

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Background. The increase of technological violation intensity and its consequences severity is caused mainly by objectively existing aging and service life depletion of electrical equipment. The power industry liberalization exacerbates the reliable operation problem of the power system and requires identification of power system operation accompanied by the maximum emergency risk with possible cascade accidents development. Therefore, the model development task for assessment of the equipment failure risk based on the diagnostic results of technical condition in particular under short circuit in the external network is relevant today. Objective. The aim of the work is to develop a fuzzy mathematical model for probability assessment of power transformer failure in the presence of a windings defect, short circuit in external network and emergency risk assessment under power transformers out of service. Methods. The fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic were used for developing a mathematical model of risk assessment of power trans- former failure. The problems of determining the “weak” in terms of power transformers reliability of power systems based on the results of failure risk assessment due to external short circuits were solved by methods of fuzzy logic and probabilistic-statistical simulation of electric power system modes. Results. The necessity of complex simulation of electric power system modes is substantiated for probability assessment of power transformer failure under electrical network disturbances. The simulation of technical condition of power transformer windings was carried out. The short circuit influence on operability level of power transformers of electric power system was investigated. The quantitative indicators of operational risk of electric power system were determined under power transformers out of service. Conclusions. The linguistic mathematical model for estimating the failure probability of power transformer windings in the presence of defect and short circuit in electrical network has been developed to determine the quantitative indicators of emergency risk in power system.

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Electric power system simulation for risk assessment of power transformer failure under external short-circuit conditions

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Fuzzy Modeling of Switching Equipment for Tasks of Assessing the Risk of Emergency Situations in the Eps in Case of Electrical Equipment Failures

Fuzzy Modeling of Switching Equipment for Tasks of Assessing the Risk of Emergency Situations in the Eps in Case of Electrical Equipment Failures

Determination of Disruption Risk of the Normal Regime of the Electric Power System under Planned and Emergency Decommissioning of Electrical Equipment

Determination of “Weak” by Power Transformers Reliability of Power Systems According to the Results of Failure Risk Assessment Under External Short Circuits

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