Electoral Campaigns and Biased Perceptions of Voter Interests

Abstract

A standard view of elections is that parties should choose moderate platforms to maximize their probability of winning. However, some parties embrace more extreme positions. These parties often feature an energized activist group that is optimistic about the party's probability of winning – contradicting the standard view. We build and analyze a game‐theoretic model of electoral competition that simultaneously explains the prevalence of extreme platforms and activists' biased beliefs. We show that the activists' interests and role within the campaign induce them to optimally misperceive the interests of the electorate because such a bias shifts the party's equilibrium policy platform closer to the activist faction's ideal point. We also find that even though the more optimistic an activist faction, the more it learns from electoral defeat, the divergence between activist and elite beliefs may worsen after a loss.

Neuromarketing in predicting voting behavior: A case of National elections in India

“…In addition, Narendra Modi's nonverbal cues, such as hand distance from the mic, result in multiple regions of interest and areas of interest, resulting in a higher attention span for Narendra Modi. The results are consistent with the empirical findings of Horz and Dickson (2022), indicating that nonverbal cues can also affect judgments of a politician's competence or credibility. Narendra Modi created more AOIs by putting his logo on dice, on the buttons of his kurta, and on the end of his scarf, each registering the brand “BJP” and its logo.…”

“…The results are consistent with the empirical findings of Horz and Dickson (2022), indicating that nonverbal cues can also affect judgments of a politician's competence or credibility. Narendra Modi created more AOIs by putting his logo on dice, on the buttons of his kurta, and on the end of his scarf, each registering the brand "BJP" and its logo.…”

“…Furthermore, variations in the gestures of a speaker can produce differences in an audience's perception and, subsequently, in the persuasiveness of one's message. Such nonverbal cues can also affect judgments of a politician's competence or credibility (Horz & Dickson, 2022) and furthermore communicate judgments about the individuals being viewed. Such judgments have often important implications on how voters assess politicians and electoral behaviors, such as willingness to vote (Everitt et al, 2016).…”

Biased Learning from Elections

“…biases (e.g., Malmendier and Tate, 2005;Sheffer and Loewen, 2019). Biases of elites and party activists have received some attention in the study of electoral competition (Horz and Dickson, 2022), but existing accounts of partisan competition have yet to examine how motivated beliefs may affect how parties learn about the median voter's preferences.…”