Election outcomes, legislative representation, and satisfaction with democracy

Abstract

This paper disentangles the relationship between election outcomes and satisfaction with democracy. As the first comparative study to employ a measure of satisfaction immediately before and after elections, we can be unusually confident that any changes we observe are attributable to election outcomes. Following previous work, we affirm that voting for parties that win more votes, more legislative seats, and more cabinet seats boosts satisfaction with democracy. In addition, we demonstrate for the first time that voters are sensitive to deficits in representation; satisfaction with democracy decreases when one’s party’s seat share falls short of its vote share.

The Chicken and Egg Question: Satisfaction with Democracy and Voter Turnout

“…In this study, we found that supranational elections decrease satisfaction both among voters and abstainers. Similar negative effects can be expected in other contexts in which elections produce outcomes that are seen as distorted, illegitimate or ineffective, and it may affect especially those who voted for parties that fail to gain any representation (Blais, Morin-Chassé, and Singh 2015). For instance, satisfaction may decrease among those voters in the United States whose preferred presidential candidate loses the White House despite winning the popular vote, as did the Democratic candidate in 2000 and 2016 (Craig et al 2006).…”

“…Blais and Gélineau (2007) found a positive effect on voters in general and winners, particularly in the Canadian election of 1997. Finally, Blais, Morin-Chassé, and Singh (2015) found that satisfaction increased among those who voted for parties that gained greater shares of votes, seats, and cabinet portfolios. All these findings reveal that the use of post-electoral measures of satisfaction can be a risky strategy since causality may go in the opposite direction.…”

The consequences of supply gaps in two‐dimensional policy spaces for voter turnout and political support: The case of economically left‐wing and culturally right‐wing citizens in Western Europe

“…On a most basic level, voters whose preferred party wins in elections show higher levels of satisfaction (Anderson & Guillory ; Blais et al. ). Beyond that, ideological or issue congruence with the government (Curini et al.…”

On the Subjectivity of the Experience of Victory: Who Are the Election Winners?

“…For example, Singh () notes that the effect of winning on democratic satisfaction is particularly pronounced for voters who selected winning parties to which they have strong partisan attachments. Moreover, Blais, Morin‐Chassé, and Singh () find that the relationship between winning and satisfaction is moderated by the characteristics and performance of the party that one supports (see also Curini, Jou, & Memoli, ; Singh & Thornton, ).…”