Elderly Migration and State Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the 1990 Census Migration Flows

Abstract

The elderly's unique economic situation makes some government expenditure and taxation policies more attractive than others and also makes them potentially quite mobile. This research investigates whether elderly migration is affected by state fiscal policies, paying close attention to how the public sector is represented and using net as well as gross state-to-state migration flows. Our empirical results suggest that, in addition to cost-of-living and climate considerations, the elderly are attracted to states that exempt food from sales taxes and spend less on welfare. Low personal income and death taxes also encourage migration, depending on how these taxes are measured.

Factors Influencing the State-Level Settlement Pattern of the Undocumented Immigrant Population in the United States

“…The adoption of a variable such as COSTj has become more common in population studies in recent years (Renas 1983;Cebula 1979;Conway and Houtenvile 1998, 2001, 2003Gale and Heath 2000;Cebula and Alexander 2006). The role of state income taxation in population studies has recently become more prevalent (Conway and Houtenvile 1998, 2001, 2003Gale and Heath 2000;Cebula and Alexander 2006); in this study, the variable STINCTXj is adoped to reflect the presence of a state income tax in state j. Finally, the inclusion of a measure of economic freedom (ECONFREEj) in a population study has been previously undertaken by Cebula and Clark (2011).…”

“…In addition, since higher previous-period employment growth implies better employment/job prospects (Riew 1973;Vedder et al 1986;Saltz 1998;Cebula and Alexander 2006), a population cohort would prefer settling in a state with a stronger job growth history, ceteris paribus. Since a higher cost of living reduces the purchasing power of one's income, we expect that the population cohort (undocumented immigrants) being studied here would prefer settlement in a state with a lower cost of living, ceteris paribus (Renas 1983;Conway and Houtenvile 1998, 2001, 2003Gale and Heath 2000;Cebula and Alexander 2006). Ruger and Sorens (2009, p. 1) define "economic freedom" as "… the ability to dispose of one's…justly acquired property and resources however one sees fit, so long as it does not coercively infringe upon another individual's ability to do the same."…”

“…Finally, the absence of a state income tax implies not only a lower income tax burden for undocumented immigrants but also a potentially reduced probability of detection by government authorities. In theory, this cohort would prefer states without state income taxes, ceteris paribus (Tullock 1971;Conway and Houtenvile 1998, 2001, 2003Gale and Heath 2000;Cebula and Alexander 2006). To measure quality of life conditions for undocumented immigrants in state j, the focus in this study is on three factors, namely: JANTEMPj, the mean January temperature in state j , as a measure of climatic conditions; COASTj, a binary dummy variable indicating that state j borders the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico; and HISPj, the documented percentage of the population of state j in 2000 that was classified as Hispanic.…”

“…To measure quality of life conditions for undocumented immigrants in state j, the focus in this study is on three factors, namely: JANTEMPj, the mean January temperature in state j , as a measure of climatic conditions; COASTj, a binary dummy variable indicating that state j borders the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico; and HISPj, the documented percentage of the population of state j in 2000 that was classified as Hispanic. As in many studies of population settlement patterns (Renas 1983;Saltz 1998;Conway and Houtenvile 1998, 2001, 2003Gale and Heath R.J. Cebula et al 2000; Cebula and Alexander 2006), JANTEMPj, or some reasonable substitute for JANTEMPj, is considered as a potentially important influence. In earlier studies, and in the present one as well, it is expected that a warmer climate is likely to be an attraction to most population groups, ceteris paribus.…”

Property Value Assessment Growth Limits, Tax Base Erosion, and Regional In-Migration

“…Conway and Rork (2006), for example, use the elderly migration rate as the dependent variable in a linear specification. On the other hand, Conway and Houtenville (2001) use migration flow as the dependent variable in a logarithmic specification. Cebula (1990) and Cebula and Alexander (2006) also use migration flow as the dependent variable but in a linear framework.…”