Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review

Goodwin, Phil; Dargay, Joyce; Hanly, Mark

doi:10.1080/0144164042000181725

Cited by 580 publications

(372 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…They are higher than average in the recent literature (Goodwin et al, 2004;Graham and Glaister, 2004). Also, the semi elasticity of car age (1 year) is approximately −7%, which is seldom reported in the literature.…”

Section: According To the Statistics Bureau Ministry Of Internal Affcontrasting

confidence: 39%

Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan

Yagi

Managi

2016

Transport Policy

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This study empirically examines the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan between 1980 and 2009. Unique car cohort data, composed of the car age and 11 car types, at the prefectural level, is analyzed. The primary reason for examining the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan is because Japan is projected to face radical demographic changes in the next few decades.These projected changes include depopulation and an aging population with diminishing household size. This study will be the first empirical study of the car cohort model with large countrywide observations in the recent literature. This study classifies the demographic determinants into five categories: (I) longitudinal factors, (II) economic factors, (III) natural factors, (IV) social factors, and (V) other transports. Although some tendencies vary among car types, this study finds the following tendencies of ordinary car ownership (compact four-wheel drive trucks and regular and compact passenger cars). Regarding the longitudinal factors, the long-run effect is much higher than average in the recent literature, whereas the semi elasticity of car age is approximately −7%. Regarding the economic factors, the elasticities of income and fuel price on car ownership tend to be less intense than in earlier studies. Regarding the natural factors of population increase, the elasticities of population and average household size on car ownership tend to be negative. This indicates that a decrease in population and household size in Japan will accelerate car ownership. In addition, the ratio of elderly people has various effects depending on car types. Regarding the social factors of population increase, car ownership tends to be encouraged by the concentration of population within prefecture, and increased and decreased for relatively new (aged 2-11) and old (aged 12+) cars, respectively, by the concentration of population across prefectures. The former is probably due to a composite effect in urban and rural areas, whereas the latter may be a quick update cycle due to an effect of urbanization. Regarding other transports, the degrees of train and bus use tend to be negatively associated with ordinary car ownership. However, these effects are considerably small and often insignificant as in the literature.

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Section: According To the Statistics Bureau Ministry Of Internal Affcontrasting

confidence: 39%

Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan

Yagi

Managi

2016

Transport Policy

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“…Accordingly, personal income per capita (PIPC) is included as an indicator of the average incomes in urban areas. Positive income elasticities of demand are found consistently in the literature and range from 0.05 to 0.62 in the short run, and 0.12 to 1.47 in the long run (Goodwin, Dargay and Hanly, 2004).…”

Section: Variable Selection and Expected Relationship With Vmtsupporting

confidence: 62%

“…Additionally, the real fuel cost (RFC) has been used in other studies as a proxy for the price of driving (McMullen et al, 2009;Fulton et al, 2000;and Noland, 2001). Price elasticities of demand for driving are expected by economic theory to be negative and are found in other studies to range from -0.17 to -0.05 in the short run, and -0.63 to -0.10 in the long run (Goodwin, Dargay and Hanly, 2004). …”

Section: Variable Selection and Expected Relationship With Vmtmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between VMT and Economic Activity

McMullen

Eckstein²

2011

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Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S. have exhibited an upward trend over time similar to that observed for gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income (PI). While conventional wisdom suggests that economic growth leads to more driving and thus higher VMT, it is theoretically possible that the causation could also be the other way around. If causation is from VMT to GDP, then legislation such as the Federal Surface Transportation Policy and Planning Act of 2009's directive to annually reduce national per capita VMT could potentially have an adverse impact on overall economic activity.This study uses times series techniques to empirically test for Granger causality between VMT and various measures of national economic activity over time. In most circumstances the causal relationship is found to be from economic activity to VMT, confirming conventional wisdom and suggesting that exogenous shocks to VMT would not negatively impact national GDP. The relationship between national VMT and GDP is found to be dependent on the stage of the business cycle, in particular GDP leads VMT in economic upturns or normal times, but VMT tends to lead GDP recessions. For the 98 urban areas included in this study no significant causal relationship was found between VMT and economic activity in either direction.A derived demand analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between VMT and economic activity on a more micro level to determine where potential adverse impacts from VMT reduction policies might arise and how policy could be formulated to mitigate those impacts. Factors found to significantly contribute to the demand for VMT in urban areas, included lane miles, personal income, population density, fuel cost, transit use, and the percent of employment in the construction or wholesale sectors. Both transit use and population density were found to be negatively related to VMTPC and per capita VMT was found to be higher the more western and the larger the population size of an urban area.

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“…Meta-analyses (Espey, 1998;Goodwin et al, 2004) of the price-elasticity of gasoline 7 give a value situated between −0.3 and −0.6. There are no such meta-analyses for coal but Dahl (1993) surveyed the sparse results and nd the evidence mixed but might be slightly more inclined to favor an inelastic price and income response .…”

Section: Interpretative Problems About Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Environment and Directed Technical Change: Comment

2012

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SummaryThis paper discusses the growth model with environmental constraints recently presented in (Acemoglu et al., 2011) which focuses on the redirection of technical change by climate policies with research subsidies and a carbon tax. First, Acemoglu et al.'s model and chosen parameters yield numerical results that do not support the conclusion that ambitious climate policies can be conducted "without sacrificing (much or any) long-run growth". Second, they select unrealistic key parameters for carbon sinks and elasticity of substitution. We find that more realistic parameters lead to very different results. Third, the model leads to an unrealistic conclusion when used to analyse endogenous growth, suggesting specification problems. Keywords

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Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review

Cited by 580 publications

References 33 publications

Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan

Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan

The Relationship Between VMT and Economic Activity

The Environment and Directed Technical Change: Comment

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