El Niño’s Effects on Southern African Agriculture in 2023/24 and Anticipatory Action Strategies to Reduce the Impacts in Zimbabwe

Abstract

The frequency of El Niño occurrences in southern Africa surpasses the norm, resulting in erratic weather patterns that significantly impact food security, particularly in Zimbabwe. The effects of these weather patterns posit that El Niño occurrences have contributed to the diminished maize yields. The objective is to give guidelines to policymakers, researchers, and agricultural stakeholders for taking proactive actions to address the immediate and lasting impacts of El Niño and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry. This brief paper provides prospective strategies for farmers to anticipate and counteract the El Niño-influenced dry season projected for 2023/24 and beyond. The coefficient of determination R2 between yield and ENSO was low; 11 of the 13 El Niño seasons had a negative detrended yield anomaly, indicating the strong association between El Nino’s effects and the reduced maize yields in Zimbabwe. The R2 between the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and rainfall (43%) and between rainfall and yield (39%) indirectly affects the association between ONI and yield. To safeguard farmers’ livelihoods and improve their preparedness for droughts in future agricultural seasons, this paper proposes a set of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making guidelines that the agriculture industry should follow. The importance of equipping farmers with weather and climate information and guidance on drought and heat stress was underscored, encompassing strategies such as planting resilient crop varieties, choosing resilient livestock, and implementing adequate fire safety measures.

The analysis of dietary diversity and food insecurity experience of urban farmers’ households in Bandung City

“…Since 2023, Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Council (BMKG) has predicted that Indonesia will face a transition from La Nina to El Nino, where there will be a prolonged drought [21]. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector in tropical countries is very dependent on rainfall for crop production so it is very vulnerable to the negative impacts of the dry season due to El Nino [22]. Thus, during El Nino, respondents previously planted vegetable crops that require a lot of water.…”

The observed El Niño-induced droughts from April to May 2023 increase the risk of famine in West Africa

“…El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cyclical global phenomenon that has received much attention and media coverage in recent years due to its strong influence on shifting weather patterns [1,2] and triggering extreme climate events around the world [3]. After three years of La Niña, which ended in March 2023, El Niño returned in 2023 with unprecedented intensity [4].…”

“…This event led to an increase in wildfires in the USA [6] and flooding in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Kenya, killing dozens of people in Nairobi [7,8]. In addition, record-breaking summer heatwaves were reported in Europe [9] and intense and severe droughts in South America, southern Africa, Asia, and the Pacific [10,11].…”

Comparison of machine learning models in forecasting different ENSO types

“…ENSO forecasting is crucial for agricultural and ecosystem management as it helps predict changes in climate patterns that can significantly impact crop yields, water resources, and ecosystem health [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Accurate ENSO forecasting enables proactive planning, risk management, and decision-making in various sectors [10].…”