El Niño forecasting based on the global atmospheric oscillation

Serykh, I. V.; Сонечкин, Д. М.

doi:10.1002/joc.6488

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Вейвлетные преобразования производились с применением вейвлетной функции Морле [9]. Для построения диаграмм вейвлетных кросскорреляций двух рядов вычислялись произведения их вейвлетных вещественных компонент [10][11][12].…”

Section: данные и методикаunclassified

Climate changes in river flow and precipitation in the White Sea Region

Tolstikov¹,

Serykh²,

Balagansky³

2022

AEE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

On the basis of observational and reanalyzed data containing more than 60 years of time series, the authors studied climate changes and inter-annual variability of river flow, precipitation, soil and atmospheric moisture in the White Sea region. As an object of study, they consider the White Sea region — a territory that includes a square within 61°—70° NL and 30°—46° EL. The authors used open resources of Roshydromet, as well as various reanalysis data. For all the studied rivers of the White Sea catchment area, there are positive trends in the change in their flow (on average 11% for the period 1955—2019). This may be due to the observed increase in precipitation in the region over the same calculation period. A significant increase in precipitation has been established since the mid-1970s until 2021. Changes in the amount of precipitation in the White Sea area over the period of satellite observations (1980—2021), estimated by a linear trend, are unevenly distributed. In the northeast and southwest of the region under consideration, there is a decrease in average daily precipitation by –0.02 kg/m2 over 10 years. This decrease is several times less in absolute value than the increase in precipitation in the central part of the study area — by about +0.06 kg/m2 over 10 years. As a result, there has been an overall increase in precipitation throughout the region. The study shows that this growth is most pronounced in the areas of Kandalaksha and Dvina Bays, as well as in the catchment area of the Northern Dvina River. The authors assume that the observed increase in precipitation may be due to the increased influence of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean on the White Sea region. The performed spectral and wavelet analysis revealed fluctuations in the studied parameters with periods of 2—4 years and 12—14 years. Via cross-wavelet analysis, the authors show the relationship between the inter-annual variability in the amount of precipitation in the White Sea region and the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations.

show abstract

Section: данные и методикаunclassified

Climate changes in river flow and precipitation in the White Sea Region

Tolstikov¹,

Serykh²,

Balagansky³

2022

AEE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The predictability of El Niño and La Niña is investigated (Serykh and Sonechkin, 2020a). In this case, the recently discovered so-called Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) is considered .…”

Section: Interactive Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This analysis reveals a range of timescales within which the closest relationship between the GAO and ONI takes place. Using this relationship, it is possible to predict El Niño and La Niña with a lead-time of approximately 12 months (Serykh and Sonechkin, 2020a).…”

Section: Interactive Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reply on RC3

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Кросс-вейвлетное преобразование GAO2 и EONI было выполнено с использованием вейвлет-функции Морле [71]. Чтобы оценить зависящие от календарного времени и временных масштабов колебаний взаимные корреляции двух индексов, вычислены произведения их вещественных вейвлет-компонент [72]. Кросс-вейвлетная диаграмма GAO2 и EONI (рис.…”

Section: методика исследованияunclassified

Untitled

2021

PRSH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Представлены статьи по наиболее актуальным современным проблемам изучения природной среды: изменениям климата в региональном и глобальном масштабах; мониторингу, моделированию и прогнозированию физических процессов в атмосфере, водах суши и морской среде; влиянию антропогенной деятельности на разнообразные процессы в биосфере, атмосфере и гидросфере Земли. Материал сгруппирован по специальностям. В разделе «Хроника» освещены события жизни университета.Журнал предназначен для ученых, широкой категории исследователей природной среды, а также аспирантов и студентов, обучающихся по соответствующим специальностям.

show abstract

El Niño forecasting based on the global atmospheric oscillation

Cited by 13 publications

References 55 publications

Climate changes in river flow and precipitation in the White Sea Region

Climate changes in river flow and precipitation in the White Sea Region

Reply on RC3

Untitled

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About