El Niño events, precipitation patterns, and rodent outbreaks are statistically associated in semiarid Chile

Lima, Maurício; Marquet, Pablo A.; Jaksic, Fabián M.

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.1999.tb00470.x

Cited by 104 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…A correlation between cycles of abundance of small mammals and the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillations) phenomenon has been demonstrated in Chile [39] and New Mexico [5]. Conversely, while Parmenter et al [46] demonstrated the local importance of rainfall, they found no strong correlation between ENSO and the occurrence of human cases of plague in the USA.…”

Section: Climatic Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 75%

From the recent lessons of the Malagasy foci towards a global understanding of the factors involved in plague reemergence

et al. 2005

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-Re-emergence of human cases of plague after decades of silence does not necessarily mean that plague foci are re-emerging. Most often, Yersinia pestis bacteria have been maintained and circulating at low levels in the rodent populations. It seems therefore more appropriate to speak in terms of expansion or regression phases for sylvatic rodent plague foci and to reserve the term reemergence for human cases. From the analysis of well-documented human plague cases in Madagascar, we underline the causes of re-emergence that can be generalized to most world foci, and can help define environments at risk where the threat of new emergence lurks. In all recent plague outbreaks, usually more than one risk factor was at the origin of the re-emergence. The reduction or discontinuance of surveillance and control, as well as poverty and insalubrity are the main factors in the re-emergence of human cases, allowing increased contacts with infected rodents and fleas. Environment changes (i.e. climatic changes, deforestation, urbanization) induce changes in flea and rodent populations by (i) extension of rodent habitats (for example by replacing forests by steppes or farmlands); (ii) modifications in population dynamics (possible outbreaks due to an increase of available food resources); but also, (iii) emergence of new vectors, reservoirs and new Y. pestis genotypes. Numerous and spontaneous genomic rearrangements occur at high frequencies in Y. pestis, which may confer selective advantages, enhancing the ability of Y. pestis to survive, to be transmitted to new hosts, and to colonize new environments. Therefore, any environmental change should be taken as a warning signal and active surveillance programs should be initiated.

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Section: Climatic Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 75%

From the recent lessons of the Malagasy foci towards a global understanding of the factors involved in plague reemergence

et al. 2005

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“…PDO and ENSO are known to impact a variety of ecological systems (Holmgren et al, 2001), including those as disparate as Pacific fisheries (Mantua et al, 1997), zooplankton species composition (Keister et al, 2011), rodent outbreaks (Lima et al, 1999), and the timing of flowering in plants in the western United States (Cayan et al, 2001). Other studies have observed significant impacts of both ENSO and PDO on butterfly populations in relation to abundance ( Vandenbosch, 2003) and the size of migration (Srygley et al, 2010) for single species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

Badik

Shapiro

Bonilla

et al. 2015

Ecological Entomology

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Abstract. 1. Ecologists often make predictions about community richness and diversity using climate variables that include seasonal precipitation totals and mean daily temperatures. While means and totals can be effective predictors to a certain extent, the complexities of faunal-climate relationships might be over-simplified through the use of coarse-grained variables.2. The goal of this study was to investigate less commonly studied climate variables, including indices of intra-annual variation in the timing and intensity of precipitation events that might be used to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient. Data from a long-term, single-observer dataset at four sites in California were examined with Bayesian model averaging and structural equation modelling. Species-specific responses to climate were compared with community responses at each site.3. At lower elevations, it was found that the relative importance of climate variables shifted towards temporal patterns of precipitation, including the timing of the first storm event and the annual number of precipitation events. Heterogeneity among sites was apparent in the importance of specific weather variables, and temporal trends (across years) were detected for a small number of variables. Species-specific results paralleled those obtained from analysis of species richness, thus suggesting a commonality of response to climate across site-specific assemblages.4. Models were improved by inclusion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, indicating that regional variables can profitably be included in faunal-climate relationship analyses. These results emphasise the need for researchers to examine climate variables beyond the most readily summarised means and totals.

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“…Consequently, we may suggest that slowly growing species such as mammals (Leirs et al 1997;Post et al 1997;Grenfell et al 1998;Lima et al 1999), ¢sh (Friedland et al 1993Dippner 1997) and birds (Forchhammer et al 1998) are likely to respond to climatic variability in a straightforward way, whereas rapidly multiplying organisms, usually small-bodied invertebrates and micro-organisms, should predominantly show weaker correlations with environmental forces (but see Fromentin & Planque 1996;Kro« ncke et al 1998;Reid et al 1998;Tunberg & Nelson 1998;Belgrano et al 1999). However, it is possible that many rapidly multiplying organisms may have a relatively weak ability for bu¡ering environmental changes due to, for example, a shorter life span, smaller body size and limited control of movement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics

Ranta

Lundberg

Kaitala

et al. 2000

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

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Characterizing population £uctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent e¡ects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that £uctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped o¡ with noise composed of low-and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag 71) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This ¢nding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise.

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El Niño events, precipitation patterns, and rodent outbreaks are statistically associated in semiarid Chile

Cited by 104 publications

References 23 publications

From the recent lessons of the Malagasy foci towards a global understanding of the factors involved in plague reemergence

From the recent lessons of the Malagasy foci towards a global understanding of the factors involved in plague reemergence

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics

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