El control de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en España: costes para los sectores agrarios

Abstract

Employing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Spanish economy, this study explicitly aims to characterise the potential impact of Kyoto and European Union environmental policy targets on specific agricultural activities up to 2020. The model code is modified to characterise the emissions trading scheme (ETS), emissions quotas and carbon taxes, whilst emissions reductions are applied to all six registered greenhouse gases (GHGs). Compared to a 'business-as-usual' baseline scenario, by 2020, GDP and employment fall 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively, whilst the retail price index rises 3.4%. In agriculture, the indices of output (4.3% fall), and supply price (7.7% rise) perform relatively worse, whilst there is a concomitant cumulative fall in aggregate farm incomes of €1,510 million by 2020. The more notable impact in agriculture is attributed to its relatively higher emissions intensity. Consequently, we record an agricultural marginal abatement cost estimate of €86 ton -1 of CO 2 equivalent by 2020, which is consistent with other estimates in the literature. In addition, we find that the optimal mix of emissions reductions across specific agricultural sectors is a function of the degree of substitutability of their emitting activities. In light of estimated income losses within the strategically important farm sector, a final simulation contemplates an 'agricultural cost-neutral' emissions reduction policy akin to a cross compliance payment between 2013 and 2020. This is found to reduce food price rises, whilst altering the optimum mix of agricultural emissions reductions across specific agricultural activities.Additional key words: agriculture; computable general equilibrium; European Union Climate & Energy Package; Kyoto protocol. Resumen El control de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en España: costes para los sectores agrariosEmpleando un modelo dinámico recursivo de equilibrio general computable (EGC) de la economía española, este estudio analiza el impacto de las políticas medioambientales de Kioto y de la Unión Europea (el acuerdo '20/20/20'), sobre distintas actividades agrarias hasta 2020. En comparación con el escenario de referencia, se pronostican caídas en el PIB y el empleo de un 2,1% y 2,4%, respectivamente, en 2020, mientras que el índice de precios al consumo sube un 3,4%. En agricultura, el índice de producción (que cae un 4,3%) y el de precios (aumenta un 7,7%), empeoran y además los ingresos acumulados de los agricultores bajan 1.510 millones de euros en 2020. El impacto más acusado en el sector agrario se atribuye a la mayor intensidad de sus emisiones donde se estima un coste marginal de reducción de 86 € t -1 de CO 2 equivalente para 2020, lo cual es consistente con las estimaciones existentes en la bibliografía. Además se observa que la combinación óptima de reducción de emisiones en los diferentes sectores agrarios depende del grado de sustitución de las actividades emisoras. A la vista de las pérdidas de ingresos observadas en el sector ag...

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