EITM: An assessment with an application to economic voting

Granato, Jim; Cong, Hongliang; Wan, Kwok Wai; Wang, Ching-Hsing; Wong, M. C. Sunny

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.03.003

Cited by 23 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Theories of Bayesian learning assert that the inferences people make are based on prior beliefs that are continually updated when new evidence is encountered (Gerber and Green 1999). In the context of economic voting, this means that when voters evaluate an incumbent, their assessment is based on their prior beliefs about the incumbent's quality, which they then update when observing the economic situation – the new evidence (Granato et al 2015). A key prediction from theories of Bayesian learning is that the extent to which people rely on new evidence when updating their beliefs depends on how strong their prior beliefs are.…”

Section: Bayesian Learning Time In Office and The Economic Votementioning

confidence: 99%

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

Larsen

2019

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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Does the importance of the economy change during a government's time in office? Governments arguably become more responsible for current economic conditions as their tenure progresses. This might lead voters to hold experienced governments more accountable for economic conditions. However, voters also accumulate information about governments' competence over time. If voters are Bayesian learners, then this growing stock of information should crowd out the importance of current economic conditions. This article explores these divergent predictions about the relationship between tenure and the economic vote using three datasets. First, using country-level data from a diverse set of elections, the study finds that support for more experienced governments is less dependent on economic growth. Secondly, using individual-level data from sixty election surveys covering ten countries, the article shows that voters' perceptions of the economy have a greater impact on government support when the government is inexperienced. Finally, the article examines a municipal reform in Denmark that assigned some voters to new local incumbents and finds that these voters responded more strongly to the local economy. In conclusion, all three studies point in the same direction: economic voting decreases with time in office.

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Section: Bayesian Learning Time In Office and The Economic Votementioning

confidence: 99%

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

Larsen

2019

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models in Political Science

Granato

Wong

2021

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Tension has long existed in the social sciences between quantitative and qualitative approaches on one hand, and theory-minded and empirical techniques on the other. The latter divide has grown sharper in the wake of new behavioural and experimental perspectives which draw on both sides of these modelling schemes. This book works to address this disconnect by establishing a framework for methodological unification: empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM). This framework connects behavioural and applied statistical concepts, develops analogues of these concepts, and links and evaluates these analogues. The authors offer detailed explanations of how these concepts may be framed, to assist researchers interested in incorporating EITM into their own research. They go on to demonstrate how EITM may be put into practice for a range of disciplines within the social sciences, including voting, party identification, social interaction, learning, conflict and cooperation to macro-policy formulation.

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Preface

2021

Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models in Political Science

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EITM: An assessment with an application to economic voting

Cited by 23 publications

References 100 publications

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models in Political Science

Preface

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