Eine Brücke zwischen Links und Rechts? Wie Sahra Wagenknecht die deutsche Parteienlandschaft verändern könnte

Abstract

The prospect of a new party can significantly change political landscapes. In Germany, a potential new party is currently being widely discussed—Sahra Wagenknecht may splinter off from her party, The Left, to form a new radical party in Germany. Above all, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration stance and could potentially bridge the gap between the right and left by forming a left-authoritarian party. What does the demand for such a left-authoritarian party look like in Germany? To explore this, we examined individual-level data to understand the structural factors that cause people to rate Wagenknecht higher than her current party, The Left. The results indicate that Wagenknecht is preferred over The Left by individuals who are more socioculturally right-wing, critical of migration, and dissatisfied with democracy. These findings provide valuable insights into the electoral potential of a potential left-authoritarian party led by Wagenknecht.

A new left-conservative competitor in the German party system? The supporters of ‘Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht’ (BSW) and their ideological positions.

“…In this paper we have assessed the electoral potential of the new Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party in Germany. First, we have confirmed the finding of other studies that there is indeed a significant voter potential in the left-wing conservative segment in Germany (Steiner and Hillen, 2021;Wagner et al, 2023). However, it is much more pronounced in eastern Germany than in western Germany.…”

“…With these findings, our study contributes to the assessment of a political trend that is currently changing the dynamics of European party systems and that is associated with a conservative turn of parts of the European Left (Lefkofridi et al, 2014;Oesch and Rennwald, 2018;Steiner and Hillen, 2021). More specifically, our study is important to shed some light on the impact of a new political project that is assumed to shake up the German party system in 2024 and beyond (Wagner et al, 2023). One the one hand, the BSW is expected to bring down the vote share of the populist radical right AfD significantly, especially in eastern Germany (Eppelsheim, 2024;Caspari, 2023).…”

“…Differences in the popularity ratings between Sahra Wagenknecht and her former party Die Linke even indicated in 2022 a high level of dissatisfaction with democracy among Wagenknecht's followers (Wagner et al, 2023). With regard to the BSW, it is therefore reasonable to assume that dissatisfaction with German democracy, mistrust in political institutions, and a strong populist sentiment are widespread among those who sympathize with the new party and intend to vote for it in the future (H4).…”

“…Following statements of party founder Sahra Wagenknecht (Wagenknecht, 2021), speculations within the German public opinion (Köppchen, 2024), and initial assessments of political science scholars (Wagner et al, 2023;Wurthmann and Gerrits, 2024), we assume that the BSW intends to occupy a political space in Germany that has so far remained largely vacant: the combination of socioeconomically left-leaning with socio-culturally conservative positions. But are the potential BSW voters actually to be found in this left-conservative quadrant?…”

“…In addition to numerous media reports (Doğan, 2023;Köppchen, 2024), there are only a few systematic contributions about Sahra Wagenknecht's political motivations and calculations (Stokes, 2024). Initial estimations suggest that her potential supporters are primarily found within a migration-sceptical, politically disillusioned milieu, close to the electorate of the AfD (Wagner et al, 2023;Wagner, 2023a;Braband and Candeias, 2024). However, as the BSW was only founded in early January 2024 and has not yet participated in an election, there is only limited knowledge about the BSW's voter base.…”