“…However, important quantities of interest cannot be expressed when focusing only on the national vote share of parties, including the size of the Bundestag, the exact distribution of seats in parliament, and the candidates' chances to enter the Bundestag via the party list or a district vote. The online appendix, section B, describes how we combine our Zweitstimme forecast with an artificial neural network to generate district-level predictions using candidate-and district-level characteristics (Neunhoeffer et al 2020). We illustrate the capability of our model to forecast district-level results by describing the forecast for one competitive district (i.e., 61 Potsdam) and describe the expected size of the Bundestag, which depends not only on the distribution of party votes nationally but also on the distribution of candidate votes across districts.…”